US and China Race for Pacific Deep-Sea Mining as Australia Faces Pressure to Act

The United States and China are locked in a race to control deep-sea mining in the Pacific Ocean, where vast deposits of cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel could fuel a global green energy transition. The industry, valued at up to USD 30 trillion (AUD 41.88 trillion), could begin commercial operations as soon as 2027, but no binding international rules exist yet. Australia is being urged to use its influence to establish environmental and benefit-sharing standards before mining starts.

How the US and China are moving into the Pacific

In 2025, China signed a seabed mineral development deal with the Cook Islands and is considering a similar partnership with Kiribati. The United States took a more aggressive step last year when President Donald Trump’s administration issued an executive order allowing US companies to apply for licences in Pacific territories, sidestepping international law. In August, the US announced plans to auction off a maritime territory near American Samoa for deep-sea mining. One US company has publicly committed to start operations as soon as 2027.

Why international law is being bypassed

The International Seabed Authority, a UN agency, has been negotiating a mining code since 2014 without resolving fundamental questions on environmental standards, liability, or benefit-sharing. The US plan contravenes international law by moving to issue commercial licences under domestic statute, outside the ISA system entirely. No binding international governance framework for commercial deep-sea mining in international seabed areas currently exists, leaving Pacific states without internationally agreed protections.

Pacific nations divided over mining benefits and risks

The issue has starkly divided Pacific island communities. Some nations want to cash in on the industry’s potential financial returns. Others, including Palau, are staunch anti-mining advocates, citing irreversible harm to the ocean on which Pacific food security, culture, and livelihoods depend. The division threatens the collective voice that has historically given Pacific states influence beyond their size, with direct consequences for regional stability.

Australia’s role in shaping the outcome

Australia is well placed to change these conditions as a member of both the Pacific Islands Forum and the International Seabed Authority, and a longstanding ally of the United States without any present commercial interest in mining. Experts say what happens next could impact Australia’s relationship with once-reliable Pacific allies. The Pacific Islands Forum is hosting a key summit where deep-sea mining is expected to be a major topic of discussion.

Final Thoughts

Australia faces a critical choice. It can use its dual membership in the Pacific Islands Forum and the International Seabed Authority to push for binding international rules before commercial mining begins in 2027, or risk fracturing Pacific unity and leaving environmental standards unset.

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