Key Points
60-day Iran ceasefire deal expired August 17 with no agreement reached on ending conflict.
Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes with Strait of Hormuz control and posted map claiming waterway as U.S. territory.
Iran signaled shift to fully offensive military posture and issued demands for sanctions relief and end to military threats.
Brent crude jumped to USD 87.75 per barrel as shipping collapsed from 100+ vessels daily to 8-14 ships.
The 60-day memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran expired on August 17 with no agreement to end the five-month conflict. President Trump threatened military action against Oman, a key U.S. ally mediating talks, and posted a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz as “new U.S. territory.” Iran responded by signaling a shift to a “fully offensive” military posture. Shipping through the critical waterway has collapsed from over 100 vessels daily to just 8 to 14 ships, driving Brent crude to USD 87.75 per barrel.
What happened to the Iran deal
The memorandum signed in June gave both sides 60 days to negotiate an end to the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on August 17 that the deadline is now “irrelevant” because talks never began. Trump demanded Iran surrender and said he is in no rush to end the conflict. The ceasefire had effectively collapsed within three weeks of signing in June.
Trump’s threat to Oman and Hormuz claim
On August 17, Trump told Fox News that if Oman “gets in the way” of U.S. objectives in the Strait, “we’ll bomb the s— out of them.” This marks the second threat to the ally; Trump made similar comments in May. Trump posted a map on August 18 labeling the Strait as “New US Territory” and said he plans to declare it U.S. territory after defeating Iran. Maritime law experts note the Strait’s waters belong to Iran and Oman under international law.
Iran shifts to offensive military stance
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued demands on August 18 that the U.S. lift sanctions on Iranian oil and end military threats. Iran has signaled it could shift from defensive to “fully offensive” military operations if diplomacy fails. A senior Iranian official said Tehran could take military action to break the U.S. naval blockade. Iran and Oman have been discussing a joint declaration on maritime navigation through the Strait.
Oil prices and shipping collapse
Brent crude jumped to USD 87.75 per barrel as negotiations stalled. Shipping traffic through the Strait has plummeted from over 100 vessels per day before the war to just 8 on August 17 and 14 on August 18. The U.S. Department of Energy raised its 2026 Brent forecast from USD 82 to USD 87 per barrel and gasoline from USD 3.64 to USD 3.78 per gallon. About 20 percent of global oil supplies pass through the Strait.
Final Thoughts
With the Iran deal expired and Trump ruling out extension, the conflict enters a new phase of military brinkmanship. Threats to Oman and claims over the Strait signal escalating rhetoric, while Iran’s shift to offensive posture and collapsing shipping create real economic risk for global energy markets.
FAQs
Trump said he would attack Oman if it interferes with U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman is mediating talks between Iran and the U.S. over maritime navigation rights.
The June memorandum gave both sides 60 days to negotiate an end to the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was to allow shipping; the U.S. was to lift sanctions and end military threats.
No. International maritime law grants the Strait’s waters to Iran and Oman. Trump’s claim contradicts established law, and maritime experts have rejected his assertion.
Brent crude jumped to USD 87.75 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy raised its 2026 forecast from USD 82 to USD 87 per barrel as shipping through the Strait collapsed.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
About Author
Huzaifa Zahoor
Co FounderHuzaifa Zahoor is the engineer who built Meyka. He has spent years writing Python, training AI models, and building data pipelines specifically for financial markets. His technical articles have reached over 30,000 readers on Medium, so he knows how to make complex things easy to follow. If this article touches on how the tools work, he is the person who actually built them.
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