Nike Stock Hits 12-Year Low at $39.09 on August 18, 2026

Nike stock fell 4% to $39.09 on Monday, hitting its lowest level since September 2014. The stock has now lost 78% from its all-time high of $169.74 in November 2021. Weak revenue guidance from competitor On Holding sparked a broader sell-off in athletic apparel, but Nike’s own struggles in China and direct-to-consumer channels are the core problem. CEO Elliott Hill, who returned to the role in October 2024, faces mounting pressure to reverse a multiyear decline.

Why Nike stock keeps falling

Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $11.0 billion in late June, down 1% on a reported basis and 4% currency-neutral. The company projected first quarter revenues down by low-to-mid single digits and reiterated flat earnings per share growth over the next three quarters, excluding tariff recovery benefits. Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti said in a note that there are no hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future, citing a 22x P/E multiple on fiscal 2027 consensus earnings.

Greater China is a major drag

Nike’s Greater China region generated $5.85 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, down 11% year-over-year and 13% currency-neutral. Direct-to-consumer digital sales in China fell 29%, footwear revenue dropped 14%, and operating profit slid 20% to $1.28 billion. Local sportswear brands such as Anta and Li-Ning are steadily narrowing the gap with Nike, leveraging faster product cycles and deeper local consumer understanding.

Direct sales are shrinking while wholesale rebounds

Nike Brand wholesale revenue rose 6% to $27.45 billion as retailers restocked, but Nike Direct fell 6% to $17.72 billion and Nike Brand Digital fell 12%. Converse revenue collapsed 31% to $1.17 billion. The higher-margin direct and digital businesses are contracting while lower-margin wholesale grows, pressuring overall profitability. Inventory remained flat at $7.5 billion, leaving limited room for aggressive clearance.

What the data shows for investors

Meyka grades NKE a B+ with a neutral recommendation, citing weak PE and PB scores offset by strong ROE and ROA metrics. The stock trades at 18.7x trailing earnings with analyst consensus at Hold (5 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell). At $39.09, the stock is 51% below its 52-week high of $80.17. The 12-month Meyka forecast of $34.22 suggests further downside, though the RSI at 35.93 indicates oversold conditions that could attract value buyers.

Final Thoughts

Nike faces a structural challenge, not a cyclical one. With China weakness deepening, direct sales shrinking, and no clear path to revenue growth, the stock’s 78% decline from peak reflects real business deterioration. Meyka data points to limited upside at current levels.

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