Trump Pursues ‘Massive’ Belarus Potash Deal to Undercut Canada on September 22

President Donald Trump announced on September 21 that Washington is negotiating a potash purchase agreement with Belarus at substantially lower prices than current Canadian supplies. In a Truth Social post, Trump called it a “massive deal” and “very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.” The move signals Trump’s willingness to use alternative suppliers as leverage in his escalating trade dispute with Canada, which currently provides 79% of U.S. potash imports. However, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko immediately contradicted the claim, saying his country lacks available volumes for large Western purchases.

Why Trump is targeting Belarus potash

Trump framed the potential Belarus deal as a cost-cutting measure for American agriculture. He stated the pricing would be “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada,” positioning it as relief for farmers and ranchers facing higher input costs. The announcement comes as Trump has escalated a trade war with Canada, applying a 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion in Canadian imports since August. Canada responded with reciprocal duties. Belarus, a close Russian ally, has been under Western sanctions but recently saw some restrictions lifted by the Trump administration.

The supply problem Lukashenko revealed

Within hours of Trump’s announcement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko undercut the deal’s feasibility. He said his country “simply do not have those volumes,” noting that “everything is contracted.” Lukashenko added that Belarus wants Washington to return over $40 million stuck in U.S. banking system accounts. Belarus is the world’s fourth-largest potash producer after Canada, Russia, and China, but sanctions and the closure of Lithuania’s key Baltic port have made exporting through Russia’s Arctic route expensive and logistically difficult.

Analyst skepticism on price impact

Fertilizer experts doubt the Belarus deal will meaningfully lower U.S. potash prices or supply. Josh Linville of StoneX said he doubts Belarusian potash will play a major role in either supplies or pricing, stating “We have not struggled to find potash. We have more than enough to go around.” The U.S. imported 92% of its potash in 2025, with Canada supplying 79%, Russia 12%, and Belarus 4%. White potash averaged $854 per ton in the Pacific Northwest in September, while red potash averaged $659. Linville noted the real fertilizer shortage is in phosphate and nitrogen, not potash.

Political backlash and geopolitical concerns

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe condemned the proposal as “blood potash,” warning that Belarus supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that buying from Minsk amounts to funding Russian aggression. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul criticized Trump for favoring economic deals with authoritarian governments over democratic allies like Canada. Former congressional candidate Amy McGrath questioned the logic of “picking fights with Canada while cutting deals with dictatorships like Belarus.” The move reflects Trump’s broader effort to thaw U.S.-Belarus relations, including lifting sanctions on two Belarusian companies last week and Belarus freeing 25 political prisoners in September.

Final Thoughts

Trump’s Belarus potash deal faces immediate credibility problems: Lukashenko says volumes are unavailable, analysts doubt price benefits, and transport routes remain constrained by sanctions. The announcement appears more a trade war signal than a practical fertilizer solution for U.S. farmers.

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