TRP Maintains Outperform: BMO, Scotiabank Raise Price Targets May 2026

Analysts are signaling confidence in TC Energy Corporation (TRP) as multiple firms raised their price targets on May 4, 2026. BMO Capital and Scotiabank both increased their TRP price target estimates, reflecting positive momentum in the energy infrastructure sector. The stock trades at $66.04 with a market cap of $68.8 billion. While the ratings remain steady, these upgrades suggest analysts see upside potential for the Canadian pipeline operator. We examine what these moves mean for investors tracking this dividend-paying energy play.

BMO Capital and Scotiabank Raise TRP Price Target Estimates

BMO Capital Lifts Target to C$94

BMO Capital raised its TRP price target to C$94 from C$89, maintaining an Outperform rating on May 4. The $5 increase reflects confidence in TC Energy’s operational performance and cash generation. BMO’s move signals the firm sees value at current levels, with the stock trading near its 52-week high of $67.31. The analyst maintains its positive stance despite near-term market volatility affecting energy stocks broadly.

Scotiabank Pushes Target Higher to C$97

Scotiabank delivered an even more bullish call, raising its TRP price target to C$97 from C$93 on the same day. The $4 increase represents the most aggressive upside estimate among the three firms updating coverage. Scotiabank also kept its Outperform rating intact, signaling sustained confidence in TC Energy’s dividend sustainability and infrastructure growth prospects. This target implies meaningful upside from current trading levels.

TD Securities Maintains Hold with C$90 Target

TD Securities raised its TRP price target to C$90 from C$88 but maintained a Hold rating, taking a more cautious stance than its peers. The $2 increase reflects modest optimism while the Hold rating suggests the firm sees limited near-term catalysts. TD’s more conservative view provides balance to the broader analyst consensus, which currently shows 14 Buy ratings, 7 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating across all coverage.

TC Energy’s Financial Position and Dividend Appeal

Strong Cash Flow Supports Dividend Payments

TC Energy generated $7.06 in operating cash flow per share trailing twelve months, providing a solid foundation for its 3.73% dividend yield. The company paid $3.40 per share in dividends, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns despite capital-intensive infrastructure operations. Free cash flow of $1.98 per share remains positive, though the payout ratio exceeds 100%, indicating the firm relies on asset sales and financing to fund distributions. This structure is typical for mature pipeline operators.

Valuation Metrics Show Premium Pricing

TRP trades at a P/E ratio of 26.9, above historical averages for the energy sector, reflecting investor appetite for stable infrastructure plays. The price-to-sales ratio of 6.25 and price-to-book ratio of 3.47 suggest the market prices in long-term growth and regulatory stability. Meyka AI rates TRP with a grade of B, reflecting balanced fundamentals. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These grades are not guaranteed and we are not financial advisors.

Debt Levels Warrant Monitoring

TC Energy carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.23, typical for capital-intensive pipeline operators but elevated compared to less leveraged peers. The company’s interest coverage ratio of 2.23 indicates adequate but not excessive debt servicing capacity. Net debt to EBITDA stands at 5.66x, reflecting the firm’s reliance on leverage to fund infrastructure investments and maintain dividends.

Analyst Consensus and Market Outlook for TRP

Broad Buy Consensus Supports Upside

The analyst community remains constructive on TC Energy, with 14 Buy ratings dominating the consensus versus just 7 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating. This 2-to-1 buy-to-hold ratio suggests most analysts see value in the stock at current levels. The recent price target increases from BMO and Scotiabank reinforce this positive bias, though TD Securities’ more cautious Hold rating provides a counterweight. The consensus rating of 3.0 (Buy) reflects this bullish lean.

Technical Setup Shows Mixed Signals

TRP’s RSI of 65.8 indicates the stock is approaching overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term consolidation. The MACD histogram of 0.65 remains positive, supporting upward momentum, while the Stochastic %K of 90.92 signals strong buying pressure. Volume has declined to 1.68 million shares versus the 2.69 million average, suggesting caution among traders. These mixed signals suggest investors should watch for profit-taking.

Earnings and Catalyst Timeline

TC Energy reports earnings on July 30, 2026, providing the next major catalyst for stock movement. The company’s EPS of $2.48 reflects solid profitability, though earnings growth remains challenged by operational headwinds. Investors should monitor regulatory developments affecting pipeline operations and any updates on capital spending plans that could impact future dividend coverage.

What the Meyka Grade Reveals About TRP Investment Quality

B Grade Reflects Balanced Risk-Reward Profile

Meyka AI’s B grade for TRP indicates a solid but not exceptional investment opportunity. The score of 68.86 out of 100 places TC Energy in the middle range of quality stocks, balancing strong cash generation against elevated leverage and valuation concerns. The grade incorporates S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. This balanced assessment aligns with the mixed technical signals and varied analyst ratings.

Growth Prospects Tempered by Sector Headwinds

TC Energy’s three-year revenue growth of 18.1% demonstrates solid expansion, though net income declined 25.1% year-over-year, reflecting margin pressure and higher financing costs. Free cash flow growth of 55.5% provides encouragement, suggesting the firm is improving capital efficiency. However, the negative EPS growth of -26.2% raises questions about earnings sustainability, particularly if interest rates remain elevated.

Forecast Models Suggest Long-Term Appreciation

Meyka’s AI price forecasts project $90.15 in three years and $113.40 in five years, implying annual returns of roughly 8-10% from current levels. These forecasts assume continued dividend payments and stable pipeline utilization. The yearly forecast of $66.83 suggests minimal near-term upside, consistent with the technical overbought signals and recent analyst caution from TD Securities.

Final Thoughts

TC Energy’s analyst coverage shows mixed sentiment. BMO Capital and Scotiabank raised price targets to C$94 and C$97, reflecting confidence in infrastructure assets and dividends. However, TD Securities’ conservative Hold rating and C$90 target highlight valuation concerns. With a B grade from Meyka AI and P/E of 26.9, TRP trades at a premium requiring strong execution. The 3.73% dividend yield attracts income investors, but elevated leverage and slowing earnings growth demand caution. Investors should wait for July earnings before making significant moves as the stock consolidates.

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Disclaimer:

Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Analyst ratings are opinions and not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.