Toncoin USD Slides 16% to $1.38 as Sellers Dominate

Toncoin USD plummeted 16.2% to $1.3838 in 24 hours, erasing $0.267 from its price as trading volume dried up to 127.5 million, less than half the 30-day average. No single news event explains the sharp drop. The sell-off leaves the token down 57% over the past year and trading near its lowest levels since the start of 2026.

Why TONUSD broke below $1.65 support

TONUSD opened at $1.65 and fell to a low of $1.3784 in a single session, breaking through the 50-day moving average at $1.855. The token now sits below its 200-day average of $1.551, signaling a shift from short-term to medium-term weakness. Volume collapsed to 46% of normal, suggesting retail sellers overwhelmed buyers.

Technical indicators point to oversold conditions mixed with caution

The RSI stands at 45.65, neutral but not yet oversold. The MACD histogram is flat at zero with both lines at -0.02, showing no directional momentum. The ADX reads 20.19, below the 25 threshold for a strong trend, meaning the selloff lacks conviction. Price sits between the Bollinger Band lower ($1.29) and middle ($1.38), neither deeply oversold nor stable.

Forecast data shows steep near-term and long-term declines

Meyka’s one-month forecast is $1.14, implying a 17.6% further drop from current levels. The 12-month forecast of $0.021 suggests a 98.5% decline, though such extreme long-term projections carry high uncertainty. The quarterly forecast of $1.90 offers a recovery path, but only if the current downtrend reverses. Forecasts may change due to market conditions, regulations, or unexpected events.

Market structure shows weak conviction in the selloff

The CCI at 162.4 signals overbought conditions on the downside, a contrarian signal that may precede a bounce. The Williams %R at -82.13 indicates extreme oversold pressure. The Money Flow Index at 43.24 shows weak selling pressure, not panic liquidation. These mixed signals suggest the move may be exhausting itself, though no reversal is confirmed.

Final Thoughts

TONUSD’s 16% drop reflects broad weakness rather than a specific catalyst, with technical indicators split between oversold extremes and neutral momentum. The collapse in volume below half the average suggests the move lacks institutional conviction. Traders watching for a reversal should wait for the RSI to climb above 50 and volume to return to normal before betting on a bounce.

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Disclaimer:

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This content is for informational purposes only. The Forecast Prediction Model is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market data and sentiment analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.