Oil Prices: Brent Oil Near $79 and WTI Around $75 as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Revives Hormuz Shipping 

Oil prices are falling for a reason that matters far beyond a single trading session. Brent crude futures declined 89 cents (1.12%) to $78.66 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 98 cents (1.28%) to $75.81 per barrel on June 18, 2026. The decline followed confirmation that maritime traffic on the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen and permit free passage for 60 days, after the US and Iran signed a 14-point agreement. President Trump signed the deal on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Reopening Matters So Much

The Strait of Hormuz is the critical waterway through which around 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits. Its closure since the conflict began has created a genuine global supply bottleneck.

• Nearly 600 ships and 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded in Gulf waters due to the strait’s effective closure.
• Under Article 5 of the agreement, Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only.”
• Crude inventories at Cushing, the largest U.S. oil storage hub, have fallen to around 20 million barrels, marking one of the lowest levels recorded in recent years.

Oil Prices Have Fallen From Their Conflict Peak

A Brutal Climb, Now Reversing

Brent crude futures rose past $111 per barrel in late March 2026, their highest level since June 2022, as the closure choked roughly a fifth of global energy flows. At the conflict’s worst, oil prices had surged roughly 50% since the war began, with Brent climbing above $113 per barrel.

Global oil prices have since tumbled by around 20% from those 2026 highs, with Brent plunging almost 19% in May alone, its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic. Today’s $78.66 Brent price confirms that the decline has continued through June.

Why the Recovery in Oil Prices Isn’t Guaranteed Yet

Bob Parker, senior advisor at the International Capital Markets Association, warned that “even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, I think it’s fair to say that opening will only be partial,“ citing significant damage to infrastructure, refineries, and pipelines across the Gulf.

A second, separate risk is now weighing on oil prices from an entirely different direction. Updated Fed projections show nine of 19 policymakers now expect interest rate increases later this year to combat inflation, a shift that could slow economic activity and reduce fuel demand. Oil markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments around the US-Iran negotiations, the Hormuz reopening, and central bank policy decisions.

What This Means for Energy Stocks

Falling oil prices typically pressure producer margins while easing costs for transport and consumer sectors. Energy majors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Shell (LON: SHEL) are watching the Hormuz reopening timeline closely, as it directly affects regional supply availability and shipping insurance costs across their tanker operations.

Final Thoughts

Uncertainty surrounding the final terms of the agreement, alongside the prospect of tighter monetary policy, could continue to drive volatility in Brent crude and WTI prices in the coming weeks. The 60-day safe passage window gives markets a concrete deadline to watch. Whether oil prices stabilize near today’s levels or rebound depends heavily on how quickly the stranded fleet of 600 ships can actually move through the strait.

Disclaimer

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.