Moderna Soars 177% on Melanoma Vaccine Win; Merck Gains 12% on August 20

Moderna and Merck announced Wednesday that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine met key goals in a Phase 3 trial of over 1,100 melanoma patients. The combination therapy significantly extended the time patients lived without cancer returning and reduced the risk of spread. Moderna soared 177% to $174.38, while Merck climbed 12% to $152.22, marking the first positive late-stage result for an mRNA cancer treatment.

What the trial proved

The INTerpath-001 study tested intismeran (also called V940 or mRNA-4157) combined with Merck’s Keytruda in patients with stage IIB-IV melanoma whose tumors had been surgically removed. The combo met the primary endpoint of extending recurrence-free survival and a key secondary goal of reducing distant metastasis. The regimen showed clinically meaningful improvement over Keytruda alone, the current standard of care.

Why the stock surge matters

Moderna’s 177% jump delivered a $5.5 billion loss to short sellers betting on the stock’s decline, according to S3 Partners. The move reflects investor confidence in mRNA as a cancer-fighting platform. Meyka grades Moderna a B with a 12-month forecast of $58.61, but the stock’s RSI at 92 signals overbought conditions. Merck, graded B+ by Meyka with a $148.17 target, has more modest upside from here.

Path to approval and timeline

The companies plan to present full data at an upcoming medical meeting and will begin talks with regulators “in the next few months,” according to Dr. Dean Li, president of Merck Research Laboratories. The Phase 3 study will continue to measure overall survival benefit. No U.S. approval timeline has been set, though melanoma accounts for only 1% of skin cancers but causes most skin cancer deaths.

What this means for investors

The trial win validates mRNA technology beyond vaccines. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel called it “a big moment for medicine, a big moment for patients.” Both stocks face near-term pullback risk given extreme momentum indicators, but long-term the data opens a new revenue stream in oncology. Merck’s larger market cap ($376 billion vs. Moderna’s $69 billion) provides stability; Moderna’s smaller size amplifies volatility.

Final Thoughts

Moderna and Merck’s Phase 3 win marks a watershed moment for mRNA cancer therapy, but both stocks are overbought after explosive single-day gains. Investors should wait for regulatory clarity and full data before chasing the rally.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.