Ken Paxton’s Leaked Audio Reveals Trump Convention Hurt His Poll Numbers

Leaked audio published Wednesday by The New York Times captured Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton telling donors that President Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas dropped his poll numbers. “Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said at a private South Texas fundraiser. Trump brushed off the criticism, saying he “hadn’t heard that” and defending the convention as “amazing.” The recording threatens to undermine Paxton’s Senate bid against Democrat James Talarico weeks before November’s election.

What Paxton said in the private recording

In the leaked audio, Paxton was asked whether someone was “a little bit of a drag.” He responded: “When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” The recording came from a private event with donors and lobbyists in South Texas, according to The New York Times. The outlet said three people with knowledge of the event confirmed the audio’s accuracy.

Trump and Vance defend the convention

Trump responded in the Oval Office on Wednesday by saying he “hadn’t heard that” about Paxton’s comments. He then praised the Dallas convention, calling it “amazing” and pointing to its viewership. Trump argued that “other people were helped greatly” by the two-day event. Vice President JD Vance also dismissed the controversy, telling Fox News on Wednesday that he was not particularly concerned about Paxton’s off-the-record comments, saying “We’re going to help Ken.”

Paxton’s team denies the audio is authentic

Paxton’s spokesperson Nick Maddux moved quickly to contain the fallout, calling the recording “manipulated nonsense to create a story that doesn’t exist.” Maddux pointed to an internal poll showing Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico by three points, claiming that Paxton’s numbers have improved since early September. However, most independent polls since mid-summer show Talarico either tied with Paxton or holding a slight lead.

The polling picture remains tight

Independent surveys paint a mixed picture. A ReconMR Texas poll from September 30 showed Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%. The New York Times Polling Tracker shows every independent poll since early September has Talarico with a narrow lead of one to six points, with one poll showing a tie. The last independent poll to show Paxton ahead was an August survey giving him a one-point advantage. Trump is scheduled to campaign in Denton, Texas on Thursday, with Paxton expected to attend.

Final Thoughts

The leaked audio exposes a rift between Trump’s public support for Paxton and the candidate’s private doubts about the convention’s impact. With independent polls favoring Talarico and only weeks until November, Paxton faces pressure to recover lost ground despite Trump’s backing.

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