Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) Stock Jumps 6% as Strong Forecasts Signal AI-Driven Turnaround

Intel stock surged as much as 6% in after-hours trading Thursday, July 23, 2026. The jump followed second-quarter results that crushed Wall Street estimates. Revenue hit $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year, the fastest growth since 2011. Adjusted EPS came in at 42 cents versus the 21 cents analysts expected. Strong third-quarter guidance added further fuel to the rally.

Intel Stock Reacts To Blowout Q2 Results

Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) closed near $100.40 Thursday before the earnings release, capping a volatile week. The company then delivered numbers that far exceeded consensus across every key metric. Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled analyst expectations for the quarter.

• Revenue reached $16.1 billion versus a $14.42 billion consensus estimate.
• Adjusted EPS hit 42 cents against a 21-cent Street forecast.
• Revenue growth of 25% marked Intel’s strongest quarter since Q3 2011.

Gross margin came in slightly below the 39% target management had guided. Even so, investors focused on the scale of the topline beat rather than the modest margin miss.

Third-Quarter Guidance Shatters Estimates

Intel issued third-quarter revenue guidance that stunned even bullish analysts on Wall Street. Management now expects sales between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion for the period. Even the low end tops the $15.1 billion average analyst estimate comfortably.

• Q3 guidance range sits well above prior consensus expectations.
• Data center spending is now the primary driver of Intel’s growth.
• Management pointed to booming AI infrastructure demand as the key catalyst.

Bloomberg reported that this forecast reflects a genuine shift in Intel’s growth engine. The company’s long-awaited turnaround finally appears to be translating into hard revenue numbers.

18A Foundry Progress Fuels Investor Optimism

Intel’s foundry business has moved from an aspirational bet to a commercial reality this quarter. Yields on the critical 18A manufacturing node jumped from 65% to 85%. A confirmed manufacturing deal with a major cloud service provider added credibility.

• ASML confirmed Intel will be the first to deploy High-NA EUV for logic chips.
• 18A-P, an improved node version, has now entered risk production.
• New foundry customers are expected to emerge through the second half of 2026.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan has repeatedly emphasized foundry commercialization as the linchpin of Intel’s strategy. This quarter’s yield improvement and customer win offer the clearest proof yet.

Stock Momentum Builds Ahead Of Earnings

Intel stock had already shown strong momentum heading into Thursday’s report. Shares climbed 8.4% on Tuesday, July 21, alone, driven by three separate announcements. These included a Xeon memory upgrade, an expanded Google Cloud partnership, and a new 18A order.

• Xeon 6700P processors will gain 8000 MT/s support by August-September 2026.
• Intel expanded its AI partnership with Google Cloud, including Gemini Enterprise deployment.
• The 18A node secured its first external commercial cloud manufacturing order.

Options traders had priced in a roughly 12.5% swing around the earnings release. Thursday’s actual reaction landed within that expected range, reflecting genuine investor conviction.

In telecom, performance isn’t just about cores—it’s about memory. Intel Xeon 6+ for digital service providers includes 2x memory capacity to help:

🔹 Run bigger workloads
🔹 Reduce infrastructure sprawl
🔹 Improve efficiency at the edge

Smarter scaling starts with memory.… pic.twitter.com/cPsOXrHuRa

— Intel Business (@IntelBusiness) July 23, 2026

Valuation And Risks Remain In Focus

Intel stock is up more than 170% in 2026, following an 84% gain last year. That earlier rally came as the US government took a 10% stake in the company. Current valuation sits near 94 times forward earnings, well above chip sector peers.

• Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor trade between 13 and 33 times forward earnings.
• Intel’s 2026 EPS estimate has fallen sharply, from roughly $6 to about $1.11.
• Foundry losses totaled $2.4 billion in Q1, against just $174 million in external revenue.

This premium valuation reflects heavy investor confidence in Intel’s margin recovery story. Any stumble in execution could quickly test that optimism in coming quarters.

Final Thoughts

Intel’s second-quarter results mark a genuine inflection point after years of turnaround promises. The combination of a 25% revenue jump, improved 18A yields, and strong Q3 guidance builds a credible case. Analysts will now watch whether data center momentum and external foundry orders continue building through the second half of 2026. For now, Intel stock’s 6% pop reflects a market finally seeing tangible evidence behind the AI-driven turnaround narrative.

Disclaimer:

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