Indonesia’s Super El Niño Fires Hit 11-Year Peak as Emissions Surge Globally

Indonesia is experiencing its worst wildfire season in 11 years, with a historically strong El Niño creating bone-dry conditions across peatlands in Borneo and Sumatra. From September 1 to 7, fires released 19.7 million metric tonnes of emissions, overtaking Russia and accounting for more than one-third of global fire emissions. Authorities have deployed over 50 aircraft for water-bombing and cloud-seeding as schools close and air quality reaches hazardous levels in major cities.

Why this El Niño is so destructive

El Niño weakens trade winds and allows warm Pacific water to push eastward, disrupting rainfall patterns. In Indonesia, this means hotter, drier conditions that turn peatlands into tinderboxes. The current El Niño is shaping up to be historically strong, with U.S. forecasters giving it a 69 percent chance of exceeding every El Niño recorded since 1950. The World Meteorological Organization declared on September 3 that El Niño is “firmly established” and will intensify into a “very strong” event before year’s end.

Peatland fires burn deeper and longer

Peat fires are slow-burning, highly polluting, and notoriously difficult to extinguish because they smolder at low temperatures and often burn underground. According to NASA, peat fires generate three times more fine particulate matter than other tropical forest fires, plus five times more sulfur dioxide, three times more organic carbon, and two times more methane and carbon monoxide. Columbia University researcher Robert Field said fires are likely to keep burning until the rainy season in October or November, as they do not stop once they take off underground.

Emissions and air quality reach crisis levels

Fire emission intensity from September 1 to 7 exceeded 1,500 kilograms per square kilometre, more than 10 times Russia’s level, with highest concentrations in Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. Pontianak in West Kalimantan recorded an air quality index of 394 on September 9, far above the 300 threshold for hazardous conditions. Emissions were 273 percent higher than seasonal average, though still lower than the 21.7 million tonnes emitted in the same week of 2015, when Indonesia battled similarly intense El Niño conditions.

Fires have already consumed vast areas

As of September 9, fires have burned through more than 200,000 hectares across Indonesia, with over 23,000 fire hotspots detected by satellites in the last eight months. Indonesia is home to about 36 percent of the world’s tropical peatlands, making it uniquely vulnerable. Peat fires are estimated to generate three times more fine particulate matter than other tropical forest fires, earning them the label “apex predator” among fires. The fire season is expected to continue into October and November, with authorities concerned this could rival the 2015 catastrophe that cost Indonesia as much as $28 billion and may have caused 100,000 premature deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Final Thoughts

Indonesia faces months of intense fires as the super El Niño strengthens, with emissions already the world’s highest. The crisis threatens regional air quality, food prices globally, and critically endangered species like the Bornean orangutan, which has declined 86 percent since 1950.

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