El Niño to Peak in December at Record Strength; Australian Food Prices Set to Rise

The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño will intensify before peaking in December 2026, with a near-100 per cent likelihood it persists through February 2027. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are forecast to reach 3.7°C above normal. The event threatens to push Australian food prices higher and disrupt rainfall patterns globally, increasing drought and flood risks across multiple regions.

WMO confirms record-strength El Niño peak in December

The World Meteorological Organization issued its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update on October 6, forecasting El Niño will continue intensifying ahead of its peak in December 2026. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event is “firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” with a near-100 per cent likelihood it will persist through February 2027. The forecast reflects consensus across 13 national and international meteorological centres, built on real-time ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026, with the seasonal average Niño 3.4 anomaly reaching approximately 3.7°C above normal.

Australian chocolate and coffee prices already climbing

Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said price pressures have already begun in early October, with reductions in global tropical crop supplies. “At the moment, it is mostly focused on the tropics, around cocoa, coffee, and some esoteric commodities like vanilla,” Smirk told the Australian Financial Review. ANZ’s director of agribusiness Michael Whitehead noted that cocoa is particularly vulnerable to weather disruption. “If it’s too wet, it gets a crop disease, and that impacts cocoa supply. If it’s too dry, that also impacts supply.” Cocoa is the core ingredient in chocolate, making Australian chocolate prices vulnerable to further increases if El Niño conditions persist into 2027.

Global rainfall patterns to shift, increasing drought and flood risk

El Niño is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns significantly. The WMO forecast indicates wetter-than-normal conditions across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia and coastal East Asia. Conversely, drier conditions are forecast over the western Pacific, equatorial Atlantic, the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean. Hurricane specialist Jeff Masters warned that this “super El Niño event” will drive multiple climate regime shifts, potentially causing “significant disruptions to ecosystems and to the humans that depend on them.” The Amazon is expected to face a devastating drought that could kill remaining rainforest areas and release massive quantities of carbon dioxide.

Ocean heat storage driving record global temperatures

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained that El Niño releases heat the ocean has already stored beneath the surface, rather than adding new heat to the planet. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” Saulo said. This year’s average global temperature is on track to tie with 2024 at around 1.6°C above the pre-industrial level, with 2027 expected to reach 1.7°C or more. The current El Niño is already the strongest on record and is forecast to get even stronger, with effects continuing long after the event ends in June 2027. Australian families could face exorbitant prices for chocolate and coffee if the climate forecasts hold through the holiday season.

Final Thoughts

El Niño’s December peak marks a critical climate inflection point for Australia and the globe. Australian households should expect higher food costs this summer, while governments face intensifying pressure to manage drought and flood risks across vulnerable regions. The event underscores how ocean heat storage amplifies climate volatility.

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