US-Iran Peace Deal Nears as Trump Cancels Strikes, Oil Falls Below $90

President Trump canceled planned military strikes against Iran on June 11, signaling that a peace deal was close after weeks of escalating conflict. Trump said a memorandum of understanding had reached “final shape” and could be signed as early as this weekend. Oil prices fell sharply on the news, with Brent crude dropping below $90 per barrel. However, the US and Iran remain at odds over critical terms including Iran’s nuclear rights and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Halts Strikes After Claiming Deal Progress

Trump announced on June 11 that he had canceled scheduled strikes on Iran after discussions reached “the highest level of Iranian leadership.” He said “final points” for a deal had been agreed to by the US, Iran, and other nations. Trump stated the memorandum of understanding was in “final shape” and could be signed as early as this weekend, potentially in Europe. Vice President JD Vance could attend the signing ceremony. Earlier that day, Trump had threatened to hit Iran “very hard” and take control of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub that handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

Oil Prices Drop on De-escalation Signals

Brent crude fell below $90 per barrel after Trump’s announcement, down 3.8% from earlier highs near $95. US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 3.1% to $87.25. Oil had surged earlier in the day when Trump threatened fresh strikes, climbing to around $94 per barrel. Analysts noted the price swings reflected market uncertainty over whether a deal would actually materialize or military action would resume.

Deep Disagreements Remain Over Deal Terms

The US and Iran have released conflicting accounts of what the deal contains. US officials say Iran’s nuclear program will be dismantled and nuclear material destroyed, but Iranian media says Tehran will only engage in nuclear talks during a 60-day period after signing and retains the right to uranium enrichment. On the Strait of Hormuz, the US says it will reopen with no transit fees, while Iran insists on managing the waterway itself. Iran also demands $24 billion in frozen funds be released, with half available immediately upon signing. The US says no Iranian money will be released until Iran performs its obligations.

Iran Signals Optimism Despite Public Disputes

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Telegram that the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” has “never been closer” to completion. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that mediators believed a final text had been reached and were working with both sides to “finalize the next steps.” However, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman told state media that no final deal had been reached and accused the US of making “excessive demands.” Trump dismissed Iranian media reports about the deal as “weak and pathetic,” saying leaked terms had “nothing to do” with what was actually agreed.

Final Thoughts

Trump’s cancellation of strikes and oil’s sharp drop below $90 signal market relief over de-escalation, but major gaps remain between US and Iranian positions on nuclear rights and Hormuz control. A deal could arrive within days, but disagreements over core terms mean the agreement remains fragile.

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