Key Points
Trump's national approval rating stands at 36% with 59% disapproving.
He is underwater in every swing state three months before midterms.
Democrats need only four Senate flips for control out of 53 Republican seats.
Several Republican-leaning states have shifted from positive to negative approval since January 2025.
President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% nationally, with 59% disapproving, according to new polling from Civiqs released August 3. A Newsweek analysis comparing his July 30 numbers to his January 20, 2025 baseline shows Trump is underwater in every swing state likely to determine control of Congress in November. The data comes from 120,580 responses tracked by Civiqs’ rolling online poll.
National approval slides to historic lows
Trump’s net approval rating stands at negative 23, calculated as approve minus disapprove. This represents a significant decline from his first day in office 18 months ago. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain his weakest demographic groups, according to the Newsweek analysis.
Swing states show deepest weakness
State-by-state data reveals Trump is underwater across all battleground states that will shape the midterm outcome. Several states that began his second term with positive net approval have shifted to negative territory. Some of his biggest declines have come in Republican-leaning states that once formed his strongest base.
Senate control now in real jeopardy
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning Democrats need to flip just four seats to win control. North Carolina appears lost after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement. Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Texas are now in serious play for Democrats, according to Washington Examiner analysis. Democrats have only two vulnerable seats: Michigan and New Hampshire.
What this means for Trump’s agenda
If Republicans lose both chambers, Trump’s legislative priorities face severe obstruction. Democrats would control the agenda and could block judicial appointments, funding measures, and investigations. The White House has pointed to Trump’s 2024 election victory as evidence of a voter mandate, but the new polling suggests that support has eroded significantly in key regions.
Final Thoughts
Trump enters the final stretch before midterms facing a more challenging political landscape than when he took office. With approval ratings at historic lows and swing states firmly out of reach, Republicans face real risk of losing Senate control, which would severely constrain his second-term agenda.
FAQs
Trump’s approval rating is 36%, with 59% disapproving, giving him a net approval of negative 23 as of July 30, 2026.
Democrats need to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to gain control. Republicans currently hold 53 seats.
North Carolina appears lost. Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Texas are now in serious play for Democrats.
Several states that began his second term with positive net approval have shifted to negative territory, showing significant erosion of support.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
About Author
Huzaifa Zahoor
Co FounderHuzaifa Zahoor is the engineer who built Meyka. He has spent years writing Python, training AI models, and building data pipelines specifically for financial markets. His technical articles have reached over 30,000 readers on Medium, so he knows how to make complex things easy to follow. If this article touches on how the tools work, he is the person who actually built them.
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