Key Points
Trump signed Russia sanctions law giving him 100% tariff power on September 18.
India imported 2.08 million barrels of Russian oil daily in August, 45% of total imports.
Tariffs take effect 30 days after enactment, roughly mid-October 2026.
India likely to seek U.S. waiver citing energy security and global oil price concerns.
President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law on September 18, 2026, handing himself authority to impose tariffs up to 100% on countries that remain major buyers of Russian oil and gas. India faces the sharpest exposure: Russia supplied 45% of India’s crude oil imports in August, totaling 2.08 million barrels per day. The law does not automatically trigger tariffs but gives Trump discretion to deploy them within 30 days of enactment.
What the new law authorizes
The legislation grants Trump power to impose 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian crude or natural gas that continue buying after a 30-day window. The Act targets countries meeting one of two criteria: being among the top five importers by volume in the 12 months before enactment and continuing purchases afterward. Congress granted Trump this tariff authority for the first time since 1974, according to the White House statement. The bill also extends sanctions on Iran through 2031.
Why India is most exposed
India and China account for roughly 87% of Russia’s crude exports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In August alone, India imported 2.08 million barrels per day of Russian oil, while China bought €8.4 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels versus India’s €4.8 billion. India depends on imports for over 88% of its crude needs, making Russian oil critical to energy security and domestic fuel prices.
India’s energy dilemma and potential relief
New Delhi has signaled concern to Washington about the tariff threat, citing energy security needs for its large population. Analysts suggest India would likely push for waivers, and the U.S. may grant them given the current energy crisis sparked by the Iran war. Global oil prices remain sensitive; reducing Russian supply could worsen an already tight market. Trump has called for restraint on oil price spikes ahead of U.S. midterm elections, which could favor granting India relief rather than imposing full tariffs.
What happens next
The law takes effect 30 days after enactment, meaning Trump could begin imposing tariffs by mid-October 2026. India’s government is expected to engage directly with Washington to negotiate an exemption or reduced tariff rate. The outcome will hinge on whether Trump prioritizes maximum pressure on Russia’s energy revenue or avoids oil price shocks that could damage U.S. economic conditions before the midterms.
Final Thoughts
India faces a genuine 100% tariff risk unless it cuts Russian oil purchases or secures a U.S. waiver. The timing and Trump’s energy price concerns suggest negotiation room, but New Delhi’s energy security and export competitiveness now depend on diplomatic success in Washington.
FAQs
No. The law grants Trump authority to impose tariffs within 30 days, but does not automatically trigger them. He must decide whether to use that power.
India imports over 88% of its crude needs and Russia became a major supplier after Western countries cut purchases in 2022. Russian oil is cheaper than alternatives.
Indian exports to the U.S. would face a 100% tariff, making them uncompetitive. This would harm Indian manufacturers and exporters across sectors.
Yes, but it would require finding alternative suppliers quickly and likely paying higher prices, raising domestic fuel costs and inflation.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
About Author
Huzaifa Zahoor
Co FounderHuzaifa Zahoor is the engineer who built Meyka. He has spent years writing Python, training AI models, and building data pipelines specifically for financial markets. His technical articles have reached over 30,000 readers on Medium, so he knows how to make complex things easy to follow. If this article touches on how the tools work, he is the person who actually built them.
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