Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over at NATO Summit, July 9, 2026

President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over on Wednesday during the NATO summit in Ankara, reversing a memorandum of understanding signed just three weeks prior. The U.S. military struck over 80 Iranian targets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the administration reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil after Iran attacked commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told reporters he believes the agreement is finished, calling Iran “scum” and signaling further military action may follow.

How the ceasefire collapsed in three weeks

On June 18, Trump celebrated a 60-day halt to hostilities with Iran, promising “peace and security” to the region. By July 7, the agreement was unraveling. Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. military to strike over 80 Iranian targets across the country, including facilities on Kharg Island, a vital hub for Tehran’s oil exports. The U.S. also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales after lifting them as part of the ceasefire deal.

Trump’s mixed signals at the NATO summit

At the NATO gathering in Ankara on Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. He began by attacking Spain as a “terrible partner” and demanding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent halt all U.S. trade with Spain over its defence spending. Hours later, after closed-door meetings with NATO leaders, Trump declared there was “a lot of love in that room, a lot of unity.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte credited Trump with forcing allies to address defence spending, noting that Canada and European allies spent an extra $258 billion in 2025 and 2026.

What comes next for Iran and oil markets

Trump said the U.S. has not yet struck Iran at the “highest level” and floated hitting electric plants and desalination plants, though he noted such attacks on civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime. He did not rule out future negotiations but called Iran “liars” and said dealing with them is “a waste of time.” Oil prices climbed immediately, with WTI crude rising as tensions spiked. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to continue talks, but Trump’s public stance suggests a hardened position.

Ukraine gets a boost amid the chaos

In a potential win for Kyiv, Trump said he would grant Ukraine a licence to manufacture Patriot missiles domestically as Russia escalates its air war on cities. This marks a stark reversal from Trump’s public rebuke of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a White House meeting last year. The licence comes as Ukraine faces a critical shortage of air defence systems.

Final Thoughts

Trump’s abrupt reversal on Iran signals escalating Middle East tensions that will ripple through energy markets and geopolitics for months. For Canadian investors, higher oil prices and renewed military spending by NATO allies create both risks and opportunities in energy and defence sectors.

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