Tesla Slips as SpaceX Merger Speculation Heats Up, June 16

SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share and has surged 43% to $192.50, pushing its valuation above $2.5 trillion. The historic IPO has revived speculation about a potential merger with Tesla, which carries a $1.5 trillion market cap. Tesla shares slipped overnight as investors weigh whether the automaker’s value depends on combining with SpaceX’s satellite and AI assets.

SpaceX IPO Breaks Records, Reignites Merger Talk

SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in the largest IPO ever, pricing shares at $135 on June 12. The stock jumped 19% on day one and has continued climbing, reaching $192.50 by Monday. The company now trades at a $2.5 trillion valuation, making it the fifth-most valuable firm in the world. SpaceX shares extended their post-IPO rally, adding $420 billion in market value in just two trading sessions.

Analyst Sees 80% Odds of a Deal Within a Year

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently put the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger at 80% within one year. A combined company would be worth more than $3.5 trillion, ranking among the four most valuable in the world. The two firms already share assets. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI in January, and when SpaceX acquired xAI in February, Tesla’s stake converted into nearly 19 million SpaceX shares worth $2.6 billion at IPO prices. Both companies are also jointly building a chip plant in Austin called Terafab.

Tesla Valuation Hinges on Merger Expectations

Investor Ross Gerber told Bloomberg that Tesla is increasingly treated as worthless without a SpaceX deal. He believes merger expectations are driving Tesla’s valuation, as shareholders want exposure to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network and AI assets. Gerber criticized the structure of xAI, saying Tesla’s chips and engineers helped build technology now owned outside the automaker. Tesla shares slipped over 1% overnight, though they had jumped 1% on Monday for their third straight session in the green.

SpaceX Moves Fast With $60 Billion Cursor Acquisition

Days after its IPO, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026. SpaceX had reserved the option to buy Cursor in an April 2026 agreement. The acquisition signals SpaceX’s push to strengthen its AI division, built around xAI, which continues to lag behind models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google in coding tasks.

Final Thoughts

Tesla shares slipped overnight as SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO and merger speculation raise questions about the automaker’s standalone value. With Ives targeting 80% odds of a deal within a year and SpaceX already at $2.5 trillion, the data suggests Tesla investors are pricing in a combination.

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