Super El Niño to Push UK Food Prices Higher Into 2028, Goldman Sachs Warns

A rare and powerful El Niño is forming in the Pacific and could trigger a global food price shock lasting into 2028, economists warn. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on July 9 that ocean temperatures have an 81% chance of reaching historically strong levels by October-December 2026. Goldman Sachs projects a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices, which would add roughly 1.3% to eurozone food costs and hit UK households already struggling with living expenses.

Why El Niño matters for your grocery bill

El Niño is a natural warming of Pacific waters that disrupts rainfall and temperatures worldwide. When it strengthens, some regions face severe droughts while others experience flooding. The 2026-27 event has a 63% chance of warming the Pacific 2 degrees Celsius above normal, making it potentially the strongest since records began in 1950.

This year’s El Niño comes on top of existing pressures. The Iran war has already pushed global food prices to their highest level in three years. Heatwaves across Spain, France and Germany this summer burned crops and killed farm animals. In France, some tomatoes cost 20% more than a year ago, and dairy farms produced 20% less milk due to heat stress.

Which foods face the biggest price jumps

NOAA confirmed on July 9 that waters in the eastern and central Pacific have warmed to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average. The most exposed commodities are rice, palm oil, sugar and coffee, which analysts warn could potentially rise by 50 to 100% if El Niño intensifies as forecast.

The shock will persist because supply chains recover slowly. Even if weather normalizes in 2027, food prices typically remain elevated as farmers replant and storage systems refill. UniCredit analysts wrote that “El Niño puts climateflation back on the agenda,” combining extreme weather with existing global warming effects.

How long the pain will last

NOAA estimates a 97% chance that El Niño will persist through early spring 2027. The full impact on food prices is expected to last into 2028 as supply chains adjust. This extends the period of elevated costs for UK households already facing pressure from energy bills and general inflation.

Historical precedent is sobering. A super El Niño from 1876 to 1878, combined with other climate factors, triggered droughts across India, China, Brazil and Africa. The resulting Global Famine killed an estimated 50 million people, though modern food reserves, irrigation and international aid make such a death toll far less likely today.

Who bears the heaviest burden

Women and vulnerable communities will face the harshest impact, according to Walter Mwasaa, regional director of CARE International in East and Southern Africa. He told The Independent that women will struggle most with health challenges and the burden of feeding families as food becomes scarcer and more expensive.

Smallholder farmers across Africa and Asia face particular risk. Global agricultural output is projected to take a £260 billion hit. Northern African countries including Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia will see intense rainfall and flooding, while southern nations like Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe face severe droughts that will destroy harvests and incomes.

Final Thoughts

UK households face a double squeeze: food prices already elevated by the Iran war will rise another 1.3% as El Niño disrupts global harvests through 2028. Locking in grocery budgets now and diversifying protein sources may help offset the shock ahead.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.