Super El Niño to Bring Wet, Stormy UK Winter Through Spring 2027

A super El Niño is forecast to peak between October and December 2026, bringing wetter and stormier weather to the UK through autumn, winter, and into spring 2027. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a 97 per cent chance the event will last through early spring 2027. This is shaping up to be the strongest El Niño in 150 years, with potential to disrupt global food supplies and economies.

What the UK can expect this winter

El Niño will bring a milder, wetter, and stormier autumn to the UK, followed by a colder winter and the possibility of a hotter summer next year, according to Professor Ilan Kelman of UCL’s department of risk and disaster reduction. The 1998 El Niño, the strongest of this century so far, saw more storms in the UK and was the warmest year on record at that time. Dr Alison Ming of Cambridge University warned that global baseline temperatures are already rising, and the super El Niño will add another sixth of a degree increase on top of that to global temperatures.

Why this El Niño is unprecedented

This El Niño is predicted to peak at the worst possible time for the world’s biggest tropical rainforest. The peak will occur between October and December, when the Amazon’s rivers are at their lowest and undergrowth is most likely to be tinder dry. Scientists say this El Niño is on course to be the strongest in 150 years by a “mind-blowing margin.” Even in its early phase, it is wreaking havoc across the planet.

Global impacts already unfolding

Western Europe has endured the hottest June and July in history, with exceptionally low rainfall sparking extreme wildfires in France, Greece and other Mediterranean countries. Three-quarters of England is in drought and baked by what is forecast to be the hottest UK summer on record. In Asia, South Korea and Japan are sweltering in a record heatwave, while China has been battered by Typhoon Dolphin, which forced the evacuation of more than 1 million people. Floods have killed more than 100 people in India’s Assam state.

Government and supply chain warnings

Labour MP Chris Hinchliff has urged Prime Minister Andy Burnham to take urgent action and chair the government’s Climate and Nature Security Taskforce to prepare the UK for the super El Niño. Hinchliff warned that even smaller El Niño events have created enormous supply chain impacts, caused crop failures and rising food prices, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars across the global economy. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently said the already strong system was expected to strengthen during August to October, leading to above normal temperatures worldwide and increased risk of drought in some areas and excessive rainfall in others.

Final Thoughts

The super El Niño arriving this autumn poses a dual threat: wetter, stormier UK winters alongside global disruption to food supplies and economies. With a 97 per cent probability it will persist into spring 2027, UK households and businesses should prepare for prolonged wet weather and potential supply chain pressures.

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