Super El Niño Threatens Pacific Northwest With Wet Winter, Low Snowpack

The Pacific Northwest is bracing for another winter with minimal mountain snow as a record-strength El Niño takes shape. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are running 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, with projections hinting at 6.8 to 8.0 degrees above normal later this season. Most precipitation will fall as rain, not snow, due to warmer air temperatures.

Why this El Niño is different

El Niño occurs when equatorial Pacific waters warm well above normal. In the past, typical El Niño conditions pushed storms southward, leaving the Pacific Northwest drier. But extreme ocean warming can funnel jet streams toward Oregon and Washington instead. The region has experienced three super El Niños since the 1980s, but those years saw above-average snowpacks because the world was cooler. This year, most precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow because of warmer temperatures, Oregon state climatologist Larry O’Neill said.

Cascades snowpack and drought risk

Heavy winter rains could increase landslide risks west of the Cascades. Another season with low snowpack could set the stage for drought in 2027. Streams and rivers could run warm, making it harder for salmon to migrate and spawn. Coastal fisheries could struggle to catch enough Dungeness crabs to make ends meet. The pineapple express atmospheric river will likely deliver moisture this winter, but regions hit by wildfires this summer face compounded disaster risks from debris flow and flooding.

Uncertainty in uncharted territory

Scientists are still learning how this recurring weather phenomenon reacts with climate change. O’Neill said the region is in uncharted territory about exactly what impacts could occur. The exact path of the jet stream, where the warmest ocean water sits, and how temperatures behave will determine whether the Pacific Northwest gets rain or snow. O’Neill warned residents not to be caught off guard with potential flooding or more rain than expected.

National preparedness and 2027 outlook

September is National Preparedness Month, and western Washington residents should prepare for heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, strong wind storms, and lowland snow and ice. A water year recap and 2027 outlook meeting will be held virtually on November 2 and 3, 2026, hosted by NOAA and the University of Washington. The meeting will discuss December flooding, lack of winter snowpack, drought development, and wildfire impacts from 2026.

Final Thoughts

The record-strength El Niño creates both opportunity and risk for the Pacific Northwest. Residents should prepare now for heavy rain and potential flooding, while water managers brace for another low-snow winter and possible drought in 2027.

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