SpaceX Stock Slides Below IPO Price as Wall Street Splits on $1.75T Valuation

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has lost more than one-third of its value since June, trading below its $135 initial public offering price as investor enthusiasm fades. The rocket company’s $1.75 trillion valuation now faces scrutiny from analysts questioning whether Starlink’s growth and AI ventures justify the premium. Morgan Stanley and other brokers have issued mixed ratings, signaling uncertainty about the path to profitability.

From IPO pop to 34% decline

SpaceX opened at $150 on June 12, 2026, and closed its first day at $161.11, a 19% gain from the IPO price. The stock climbed as high as $225.64 before reversing sharply. As of July 12, SPCX trades near $145, down 34% from its peak and below the original offering price. The slide reflects a broader market reassessment of mega-cap tech IPOs after the initial euphoria faded.

Wall Street splits on the valuation

Analyst consensus targets $239.67, implying 65% upside from current levels, but the spread is wide. Some brokers remain bullish on Starlink’s subscriber growth and AI initiatives like Starmind. Others worry about the company’s $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 and negative 45% net margin, raising questions about when SpaceX will turn profitable at scale.

Starlink and direct-to-cell drive the bull case

Starlink is SpaceX’s only profitable unit and the primary engine behind the valuation. Morgan Stanley expects Starlink to reach 16 million U.S. broadband subscribers by 2030, up from three million at end-2025. The company is also rolling out direct-to-cell service, with plans to expand from 480 satellites in 2027 to 3,500 by 2030. This growth trajectory is aggressive but depends on flawless execution and no major technical setbacks.

Lock-up expiration and share supply loom

SpaceX floated only 4% of its shares at IPO, with the remaining 96% held by founders, employees, and early investors. A lock-up period of 90 to 180 days will expire later in 2026, potentially releasing billions in shares onto the market. Analysts expect free float to rise from 4% to around 80% within six months, creating downward pressure on the stock if demand does not match supply.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX’s 34% decline from its June peak reflects the market’s struggle to price a company with massive growth potential but significant near-term losses. Investors betting on Starlink dominance and AI upside face execution risk and share dilution ahead.

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