SpaceX Stock Slides 4.5% as Wall Street Splits on $220 Target by Year-End

SpaceX (SPCX) fell 4.5% to $145.30 on Friday, erasing gains from its July 7 Nasdaq-100 entry that had forced $4.3 billion in passive fund buying. The stock now trades 34% below its $225.60 post-IPO high but remains 7.4% above its $135 June IPO price. Wall Street is deeply divided: analyst targets span from $62 to $900, with a consensus of $239.12, yet Meyka grades the stock D+ on negative cash flow and weak profitability metrics.

Why the Nasdaq-100 rally fizzled

SpaceX’s July 7 entry into the Nasdaq-100 triggered forced buying by roughly $800 billion in index-tracking funds, creating a low-float squeeze that drove the stock to $225.60. However, the rally proved unsustainable. With only 4-5% free float due to post-IPO lockup restrictions, supply dried up once passive buying ended. The stock has now fallen 35.6% from its peak in just five trading days, signaling that mechanical demand alone cannot support the $1.75 trillion valuation.

Alphabet and Anthropic deals add $26 billion in AI revenue potential

Alphabet agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and computing resources. Anthropic signed a separate deal for SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported the two contracts are worth approximately $26 billion annually if fully realized. However, not all AI revenue is expected to materialize in 2026, making the stock’s valuation dependent on 2027 growth rather than near-term earnings.

Starlink growth masks $4.9 billion net loss

SpaceX reported 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% year-over-year, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion and posting a 63% EBITDA margin. Subscriber count jumped to 10.3 million by early 2026 from 4.5 million at the start of 2025. Yet the consolidated company posted a $4.9 billion net loss after merging with money-losing xAI. Meyka’s technical indicators show RSI at 58.29 and CCI at -117.26 (oversold), suggesting short-term bounce potential, but the D+ grade reflects negative free cash flow of -$3.21 per share and a price-to-sales ratio of 221.08, among the highest in aerospace.

Analyst targets range from $62 to $900, consensus at $239

Wall Street Zen upgraded SpaceX from sell to hold on July 12, while Oppenheimer raised its target to $250 and Citi initiated coverage with a $200 target and buy rating. Raymond James set an $800 target, and some analysts see a path to $900 based on Starship commercialization and orbital data centers. Cfra and Moffett Nathanson remain skeptical, with targets of $115 and $131 respectively. The 26-analyst consensus of $239.12 implies 64% upside from current levels, but the wide dispersion reflects genuine uncertainty about execution risk and the timeline for AI revenue ramp.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX’s post-Nasdaq-100 pullback has exposed the gap between hype and fundamentals. While Starlink and AI deals offer real growth, Meyka’s D+ grade and negative free cash flow signal caution. Investors should wait for Q2 earnings on August 6 before chasing the stock at current valuations.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.