SpaceX Stock Falls Below IPO Price as Valuation Concerns Mount

SpaceX stock has fallen below its initial public offering price as investors reassess the company’s valuation following its first earnings report as a public company. The aerospace firm reported $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue, up 92% year-over-year, but capital expenditures jumped to $18.7 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago. At $140 per share, SPCX trades at a 41x price-to-sales ratio based on consensus 2026 revenue estimates of $44.25 billion, raising questions about whether the stock is overpriced.

Revenue surges but spending outpaces growth

SpaceX’s first earnings as a public company revealed explosive revenue growth alongside massive capital investments. Quarterly revenue reached $7.8 billion, nearly doubling from $4.1 billion in the same period last year. However, capital expenditures climbed to $18.7 billion from roughly $10.1 billion the prior quarter and $2.8 billion a year ago, signaling aggressive expansion across multiple business lines.

Valuation concerns override growth story

Wall Street analysts project SpaceX will generate $44.25 billion in revenue during 2026. At the current $140 stock price, that yields a forward price-to-sales ratio of 41, a level most investors consider expensive even for high-growth companies. For context, many of the world’s largest corporations trade at far lower multiples. The company remains unprofitable, making price-to-sales the primary valuation metric available to investors.

AI data center ambitions reshape the narrative

CEO Elon Musk disclosed on the earnings call that SpaceX plans to rapidly expand its AI compute business acquired through xAI. The company’s Colossus data center group currently operates roughly 1 to 1.4 gigawatts of capacity in Tennessee and Mississippi. Musk expects SpaceX to reach 2 gigawatts by year-end 2026 and approach 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. Major compute lease deals with Anthropic and Alphabet could collectively generate roughly $2.2 billion in monthly revenue, though this remains forward-looking guidance.

Insider lockup risk looms for shareholders

Pre-IPO shareholders face restrictions on selling their holdings through phased lockup periods throughout the coming year. As these lockup dates pass, early investors will gain permission to sell ever-growing fractions of their stakes. The final lockup expires one year after the June 12 IPO, potentially creating selling pressure. Meyka grades SPCX a B with a 12-month forecast of $38.82, suggesting limited upside from current levels. Analyst consensus leans bullish with 29 buy ratings versus 6 sells, though Meyka’s DCF, ROE, and ROA scores all signal strong sell conditions.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX’s valuation remains stretched despite impressive revenue growth and AI ambitions. With Meyka grading the stock a B and forecasting $38.82 in 12 months, downside risks from insider selling and the 41x price-to-sales multiple outweigh near-term catalysts.

FAQs

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.