SpaceX Stock Drops Below $140 as Post-IPO Volatility Persists

SpaceX shares dropped 4.2% on Monday to $139.14, nearing the $135 initial public offering price just one month after the company’s June 12 debut. The stock has fallen 40% from its $225.60 peak in mid-June, though it remains above IPO price. The volatility reflects investor uncertainty over whether AI infrastructure deals and Starlink growth can support the company’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization.

Why SpaceX stock is sliding

SpaceX shares fell 4.51% Friday and another 4.24% Monday after the FAA cleared the company to proceed with Starship Flight 13 testing. The stock is down 13.6% since its June 12 debut at $150. Meyka rates SPCX a D+ with a strong sell recommendation, citing negative earnings per share of $1.10 and a price-to-sales ratio of 206. The company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 after merging with money-losing xAI, despite revenue rising 33% to $18.7 billion.

AI compute deals could drive future revenue

Alphabet agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs. Anthropic also signed a major compute deal for SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported the two deals are worth about $26 billion annually if fully realized. Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI division to grow revenue 100-fold by 2030, from $3.2 billion last year to $322 billion.

Starlink expansion and analyst targets

Starlink operates 10.3 million users and 9,600 satellites, making it the key growth engine. Analysts predict SpaceX shares can reach $220 by end of 2026, implying 58% upside from current levels. However, Meyka’s 12-month forecast stands at $143.87, suggesting limited near-term gains. The consensus rating is Hold, with 17 buy ratings, 4 holds, and 5 sells among analysts.

ETF impact remains modest despite $1.8 trillion valuation

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 under new fast-track rules for mega-IPOs. However, the stock ranks only 21st in the Invesco QQQ ETF at 1.2% weight and 176th in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF at 0.2% weight. This is because ETFs weight holdings by free-float market cap, not total market cap. SpaceX’s restricted float limits its influence on major indexes despite its massive valuation.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX faces a credibility test. AI compute deals and Starlink growth offer real upside, but Meyka’s D+ grade and negative earnings reflect execution risk. At $139, the stock is pricing in near-term disappointment, not the $220 or $500,000-to-$1.6M long-term scenarios some analysts project.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.