SpaceX Stock Drops 8.75% After Cursor Deal, Valuation Questioned

SpaceX stock fell 8.75% over two days after the company announced a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding agent. The stock now trades at $185 USD, down from a peak of $225 USD on June 16. Analysts disagree sharply on whether the $2.8 trillion valuation makes sense given the company’s 2025 losses and new AI infrastructure deals.

Stock Price Swings After Cursor Deal

SpaceX shares fell 5% on Wednesday and another 3.75% on Thursday after the Cursor acquisition announcement on Tuesday. The stock now sits at $185 USD, well above the $135 USD IPO price from June 12 but below the $225 USD peak reached on June 16. Despite the recent decline, the stock remains up 37% from its IPO price.

Morningstar Says Stock Is Overvalued

Morningstar estimates SpaceX’s fair value at $62 USD per share, with a best-case scenario of $169 USD. This suggests the stock could fall 40% from current levels. The research firm points to 2025 financial results: SpaceX posted $19 billion in revenue but a $5 billion net loss, raising questions about profitability at the current valuation.

New AI Contracts Support Higher Valuations

Oppenheimer raised its price target to $250 USD after the Cursor deal, citing SpaceX’s control of “every layer of the AI stack.” The company signed two major AI infrastructure agreements before going public: Anthropic committed $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for cloud capacity, totaling $45 billion, while Google Cloud agreed to pay $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029, worth $30 billion. These contracts will generate roughly $26 billion in annual recurring revenue once fully ramped up.

What This Means for Investors

With Morningstar valuing the stock at $62 and Oppenheimer at $250, investors face a wide range of outcomes. The company’s path to profitability depends on whether its AI infrastructure contracts deliver the promised $26 billion in annual revenue. Schroders notes that SpaceX’s first earnings call is expected in late August, which will provide clarity on execution.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX trades at $185 USD with analyst targets ranging from $62 to $250. The stock’s future depends on whether AI infrastructure revenue justifies the $2.8 trillion valuation. Investors should wait for August earnings to assess profitability.

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