SpaceX Stock Drops 8% After Earnings Beat as AI Capex Soars to $15.8B

SpaceX posted its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday, delivering $7.81 billion in Q2 revenue, 12.7% above analyst expectations. Yet the stock dropped 8% in after-hours trading as the company’s AI segment burned through $15.8 billion in capital expenditures, more than double the $7.7 billion spent in Q1. With Meyka rating the stock D+ and a 105.9x forward EV/EBITDA multiple, the valuation reflects extreme growth expectations that may not materialize.

Revenue beats but losses widen

SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in Q2 revenue versus $6.93 billion expected, according to LSEG data. Revenue jumped 92% year-over-year from $4.1 billion in Q2 2025. However, the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion last year, and the loss per share came in at 9 cents versus 26 cents expected. The company’s Starlink connectivity segment, its only profitable unit, generated $4.29 billion in revenue with $1.66 billion in operating income.

AI spending explodes despite losses

SpaceX’s AI segment posted $2.56 billion in revenue but lost $1.26 billion in operating income during Q2. Capital expenditures for AI infrastructure ballooned to $15.8 billion in the quarter, up from $7.7 billion in Q1. The company’s total capex reached $18.37 billion in Q2, with analysts projecting annual capex to exceed $45 billion. AI spending hit ballooned as SpaceX competes with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google in frontier AI infrastructure.

Valuation concerns and lockup risk

SpaceX trades at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 105.9x, reflecting Wall Street’s bet that the company will turn profitable in 2027. Yet 27 of 34 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, despite Meyka’s D+ grade citing weak fundamentals. The stock has fallen 16% since its June 12 IPO at $150. A major overhang arrives August 6 when the lockup expires, freeing 911.5 million shares (12% of total) for sale, roughly triple the current tradable float.

Meyka data signals caution

Meyka grades SPCX a D+ with a Strong Sell recommendation based on weak profitability, negative ROE of -11.6%, and a price-to-sales ratio of 187.65x. The RSI sits at 49.66, indicating neutral momentum, while the stock trades near its 50-day moving average of $145.41. Meyka’s 12-month price forecast of $33.96 implies 73% downside from current levels, though analyst consensus remains bullish at 3.0 (Buy).

Final Thoughts

SpaceX’s earnings beat on revenue masks a troubling reality: the company is burning billions on AI infrastructure with no clear path to profitability. Meyka’s D+ grade and lockup expiration on August 6 suggest near-term pressure outweighs long-term upside.

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