SpaceX Stock Drops 7% After Q2 Earnings Beat as AI Spending Soars

SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, crushing analyst expectations of $6.93 billion. Yet the stock tumbled 7% in extended trading as capital expenditures ballooned to $18.4 billion, mostly for AI infrastructure. The company remains unprofitable, posting a $541 million net loss, though narrower than the $1 billion loss a year ago.

Revenue beats but capex alarms investors

SpaceX delivered $7.8 billion in Q2 revenue versus $6.93 billion expected, according to LSEG data. Net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier. But capital spending jumped to $18.4 billion from $2.83 billion in the same quarter last year, with nearly $16 billion devoted to xAI, the company’s AI unit. Finance chief Bret Johnsen said capex would remain at similar levels for the next two quarters, signaling continued heavy investment ahead.

Starlink profits, AI unit bleeds cash

Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, generated $4.29 billion in Q2 revenue versus $3.83 billion expected, with operating income of $1.66 billion. The AI segment posted $2.56 billion in revenue, up 247% year-over-year, but burned through $1.26 billion in operating losses. The space launch unit lost $542 million. Starlink remains the only profitable segment, driving 55% of total revenue and offsetting losses elsewhere.

Stock struggles despite strong fundamentals

SpaceX shares fell 7.5% in after-hours trading on August 4 despite beating revenue and earnings expectations. The stock has dropped 16% since its June 12 IPO at $150, closing at $114.53 on Tuesday. Meyka grades SPCX a D+ with a strong sell recommendation, citing negative returns on equity and assets. The 12-month price forecast sits at $33.97, suggesting 73% downside from current levels. Analyst consensus remains bullish at 3.0 (buy), with 23 buy ratings versus 5 sells.

Lock-up expiry may add pressure

SpaceX’s post-IPO lock-up period expires on Thursday, August 7, potentially unleashing insider and early-investor shares onto the market. This technical event could amplify selling pressure as insiders gain the right to sell holdings. The company’s market cap stands at $1.65 trillion despite ongoing losses, valuing it at 187.7 times sales according to Meyka data.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX’s earnings beat masks a fundamental tension: Starlink profits cannot offset AI losses at current spending levels. With Meyka grading the stock D+ and forecasting $33.97 per share, the risk-reward favors caution despite analyst optimism.

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The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.