SpaceX Stock Drops 33.7% From Peak as Wall Street Targets $800—July 10

SpaceX shares have crashed 33.7% from their June 16 peak of $225.64 to $149.58 on July 7, falling below the IPO opening price of $150. The stock erased roughly $1 trillion in market value in three weeks despite Wall Street banks issuing bullish ratings with average price targets of $278. Early investors are locking in profits as the market questions whether the company’s valuation ran ahead of fundamentals.

From IPO surge to round-trip loss

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share and opened regular trading at $150. The stock soared to $225.64 on June 16, a 50.4% gain in four days. By July 7, it had given back all gains and closed at $149.58, just $0.42 below the IPO opening print. Trading volume collapsed from 495.6 million shares on day one to 66.2 million by July 7, signaling cooling momentum.

Wall Street’s bullish chorus clashes with selling pressure

JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $225 price target, while Morgan Stanley set a $300 target and Goldman Sachs named a $205 target. Raymond James, an IPO underwriter, issued a Strong Buy with an $800 target, projecting SpaceX will generate $837 billion in revenue by 2031. The average analyst target stands at $278, implying 86% upside from current levels. Yet despite this consensus, investors continue selling.

Why profit-taking trumps bullish forecasts

Early IPO buyers who entered at $135 to $150 are locking in gains rather than holding for analyst targets. The combination of lofty initial valuations, cooling IPO momentum, and caution toward high-growth stocks has outweighed analyst optimism. SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 typically attracts passive institutional buying, yet the stock fell anyway, with the opening half hour alone turning over 13.4 million shares and pushing the price to $153.08 by 10 a.m.

Starship and Starlink drive long-term bull case

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale centered his $800 bull case on SpaceX becoming the foundational platform for next-generation industrial capacity. His thesis relies on Starship making space transportation so cheap that it creates new industries like cargo flights across Earth in under an hour, asteroid mining, and AI data centers in orbit. Gesuale projects $696 billion in EBITDA by 2031, supporting a 27x exit multiple. However, these revenues remain speculative and depend on Starship’s commercial success.

Final Thoughts

SpaceX faces a classic IPO disconnect: Wall Street analysts see 65-440% upside, yet early investors are cashing out. The stock’s 33.7% collapse in three weeks signals the market is pricing in execution risk and demanding a lower entry point before committing fresh capital.

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