SpaceX Shares Fall 2.3% Ahead of Nasdaq 100 Entry as Morgan Stanley Sets $300 Price Target

SpaceX shares slipped about 2.3% on July 7, 2026, as investors looked ahead to the company’s upcoming addition to the Nasdaq 100. The decline came even after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with a $300 price target, reflecting confidence in the company’s long-term growth. Some investors chose to lock in gains before the index inclusion, while others viewed the pullback as a normal pause before a major market event. Here’s a closer look at what is driving the recent move and what investors should keep an eye on.

Why SpaceX Shares are Falling Before Nasdaq 100 Inclusion?

Why Did SpaceX Stock Slip Despite Strong Investor Interest?

SpaceX shares dropped around 2.3% on July 7 as traders booked profits ahead of the company’s official Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Since its June 12, 2026, IPO, the stock has experienced sharp price swings after an impressive early rally. 

As the index rebalancing date approaches, many investors are adjusting their portfolios, leading to short-term selling pressure. Even with this decline, analysts say this type of volatility is common before large index changes because investors often reposition their holdings before passive funds begin buying.

How Could Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Benefit SpaceX?

Being added to the Nasdaq 100 gives SpaceX access to a much larger pool of institutional investors. Exchange-traded funds and mutual funds that track the index will be required to purchase the stock once the change takes effect. J.P. Morgan estimates these passive inflows could reach roughly $4.3 billion. 

SpaceX qualified for the index just 15 days after its IPO under Nasdaq’s revised eligibility rules, making it one of the fastest companies to join. Over time, the additional demand could improve trading liquidity and expand institutional ownership.

Morgan Stanley’s $300 Price Target: What’s Driving the Bullish View?

Why Is Morgan Stanley So Positive on SpaceX?

Morgan Stanley began coverage with an heigher weight rating and a $300 price target, placing it among the most optimistic firms following the stock. The bank believes SpaceX has evolved beyond its launch business. Its investment case now includes Starlink, reusable rocket technology, and AI-related infrastructure. 

Morgan Stanley just joined the SpaceX bull camp

Analyst Adam Jonas initiated coverage with a $300 price target and a bull case of $600/share, that’s an $8 trillion market cap. He sees SpaceX hitting $319B revenue in 2030 and a staggering $3.3 trillion by 2040, driven by Starship… pic.twitter.com/9lVo8yKkFj

— Coin Post (@CoinPostMedia) July 7, 2026

Analysts also pointed to the company’s computing strategy, which combines space-based and ground-based capabilities to support future AI applications. Morgan Stanley believes these businesses give SpaceX room to grow well beyond its current valuation, even if the stock remains volatile in the near term.

What Do Other Analysts and Meyka Say?

Several major brokerages have also issued positive price targets:

• Morgan Stanley: $300
• Deutsche Bank: $255
• JPMorgan: $225
• UBS: $210
• Goldman Sachs: $205

According to Meyka, SpaceX continues to show a bullish long-term trend despite the recent pullback. Its technical analysis indicates positive momentum, although short-term price swings could continue as the Nasdaq 100 inclusion approaches. An AI stock analysis tool can also help investors compare technical indicators with analyst opinions and changing market sentiment before making investment decisions.

What Does Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Mean for Investors?

Why Does Index Inclusion Matter?

Joining the Nasdaq 100 increases SpaceX’s exposure to institutional investors around the world. Index-tracking funds automatically buy shares during the rebalancing process, which usually boosts trading volume and liquidity. 

The addition also places SpaceX alongside some of the largest technology companies, making it more visible to investors interested in AI, satellite communications, and space technology.

What Risks Should Investors Watch?

A positive outlook does not remove the risks. Investors should continue watching several factors, including:

• Premium valuation compared with established competitors.
• Execution risks related to Starship and AI projects.
• Future earnings growth and cash flow.
• Potential volatility once index-related buying slows.

Some analysts, including CFRA, remain cautious because much of SpaceX’s valuation depends on long-term projects that still need to prove their commercial potential.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch Next

Investors should pay close attention to trading volumes after the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, changes in institutional ownership, and any updates to analyst price targets. Starlink subscriber growth, quarterly financial results, and progress in AI infrastructure will also influence market sentiment. Technical indicators continue to point to long-term strength, although support levels around recent trading ranges remain worth watching. 

Consistent execution across its growth businesses will likely determine whether SpaceX moves closer to Wall Street’s highest price targets.

Conclusion

SpaceX is moving into a new phase as it joins the Nasdaq 100 and attracts wider attention from Wall Street. The recent decline appears to reflect short-term profit-taking rather than a change in the company’s long-term outlook.

Strong analyst support, expected institutional inflows, and growth across Starlink and AI-related businesses continue to support the investment story. Even so, investors should weigh those opportunities against valuation concerns and execution risks before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.