Polymarket Prepares Major U.S. Push to Catch Kalshi as Prediction Market Battle Intensifies

Polymarket is making its clearest U.S. expansion push yet, building an internal market-making desk that would trade directly against its own users. That shift, reported by Bloomberg on August 12, 2026, moves Polymarket closer to a traditional sportsbook model. It comes as rival Kalshi seeks fresh funding at a valuation near $40 billion, nearly double its prior $22 billion mark.

Why Polymarket Is Building An In-House Trading Desk

Polymarket has spoken with traders and sports bettors about staffing a new internal desk that sets its own prices, according to people familiar with the plans. Unlike its current peer-to-peer model, this team would take the opposite side of user bets directly.

• New structure: Polymarket’s own traders would trade against customer positions.
• Comparison point: Kalshi already runs a similar in-house trading team.
• Planned product: parlay-style bets combining multiple outcomes into one wager.
• Pricing method: a request-for-quote protocol for complex, multi-leg bets.

Critics warn the move blurs the line between a neutral prediction market and a house-edge sportsbook. Polymarket currently charges no trading fees, giving it a clear financial incentive to change course.

The Regulatory Path That Made This Possible

Polymarket’s ability to expand its U.S. operations traces back to a 2025 acquisition that resolved years of regulatory limbo. The company acquired QCX and QC Clearing to secure a CFTC-regulated license, allowing Polymarket US to launch in December 2025.

The company still runs two separate platforms: the CFTC-regulated Polymarket US, focused mainly on sports, and the larger global Polymarket International exchange, which remains closed to U.S. customers and runs on public blockchain infrastructure.

How Polymarket’s Valuation Compares To Kalshi

The funding gap between the two companies has widened sharply in recent months, even as both continue growing at extraordinary rates.

• Kalshi’s current funding target: approximately $40 billion, per Financial Times reporting.
• Kalshi’s prior valuation: $22 billion, reached through a $1 billion raise led by Coatue Management.
• Polymarket’s active fundraising target: roughly $15 billion, according to Coindesk.
• Polymarket’s last confirmed valuation: $9 billion, following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE).

That ICE investment matters beyond the dollar figure, since ICE owns the New York Stock Exchange and brings serious institutional credibility. Kalshi, meanwhile, has attracted its own backers, including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley.

Neither company has confirmed a firm IPO timeline, though both have signaled real interest. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in June 2026 that a listing wouldn’t happen before 2027, even as the company holds informal talks with banks about the process.

The Scale Of Combined Prediction Market Volume

Both platforms are riding a genuine surge in trading activity, not just fundraising hype, with sports events driving most of this year’s growth.

• Combined June 2026 monthly volume: a record $52.7 billion, per NEXTPredict data.
• Q2 2026 notional volume growth: up 1,764% compared to the same quarter last year.
• FIFA World Cup contribution: $17.04 billion in volume during Q2 alone.
• Kalshi’s annualized revenue: reached $3.5 billion in June 2026, up from roughly $735 million in December 2025.

Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 91% of tracked platform volume in Q2, underscoring how concentrated this market has become around the two rivals.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to frustrate state lawmakers, and now Tribal leaders are stepping up their opposition. https://t.co/hMWAQOwpyF

— Chris Teale (@chris_teale) August 11, 2026

Bottom Line

Polymarket’s push into market-making and a $15 billion funding target shows real urgency to close the gap with Kalshi’s $40 billion ambitions. Both companies are converting explosive trading volume, driven heavily by sports and world events, into serious institutional credibility and eventual public-market aspirations.

With Intercontinental Exchange backing Polymarket and heavyweight venture firms behind Kalshi, this rivalry increasingly looks like a battle between two well-capitalized platforms. Investors watching the space should expect further valuation jumps as both companies race toward a potential 2027 IPO window.

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is for research and informational purposes only. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be treated as investment or trading advice.