One Nation Wins Secret Harbour Seat in Historic WA By-Election Upset

One Nation has won the Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia, claiming its first lower house seat in the state. Candidate Luke Herdegen secured 39 per cent of the primary vote, defeating Labor’s Georgia Tree on a massive 30.6 per cent swing. The result ends Labor’s grip on a seat it held with an 11.5 per cent margin, reshaping WA politics after former minister Paul Papalia’s mid-term retirement triggered the poll.

How One Nation pulled off the upset

With 80 per cent of the vote counted by 10:30pm on August 29, Herdegen held a two-party preferred margin of 3.9 per cent over Tree. Early polling votes, which numbered nearly 12,000, broke heavily One Nation’s way and sealed the victory. Tree’s primary vote collapsed to 24.4 per cent, while the Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson took 17.3 per cent. Labor’s swing of 21.5 per cent represented the party’s worst result in the outer southern suburbs in decades.

Why the seat flipped so dramatically

Political analyst John Phillimore told AAP that One Nation had strong momentum and organisation heading into the poll. Pauline Hanson blamed the Albanese government’s cost of living policies for the swing, telling supporters the result should serve as a warning to Labor. Herdegen, a gym owner, ran a grassroots campaign that mobilised volunteers across the electorate, contrasting his effort with Labor’s traditional machine politics.

What this means for WA and national politics

One Nation leader Rod Caddies declared that a safe seat does not stay safe if ignored long enough. Herdegen told the crowd there are now no safe Labor seats in Western Australia or the country. Hanson signalled One Nation would target additional Labor-held seats, citing similar campaigns underway in South Australia and federal divisions of Farrer and Nepean. The result challenges the two-party system’s dominance in Australian politics.

The path to victory

Secret Harbour is a beach-side outer suburban seat south of Perth with a mortgage-belt demographic. Paul Papalia, a senior Labor cabinet minister, quit parliament for family reasons, forcing the by-election. Labor candidate Georgia Tree conceded the result but noted the margin remained tight with 37 per cent of votes counted. The preference flow favoured Labor by 55-60 per cent, but One Nation’s primary vote lead proved insurmountable.

Final Thoughts

One Nation’s Secret Harbour victory marks a watershed moment for WA politics. The 30.6 per cent swing erases Labor’s traditional dominance in outer suburbs and signals voter frustration with cost of living under the Albanese government. Expect One Nation to press its advantage in upcoming state contests.

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