Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecasts Mild Winter 2026-27 as Super El Niño Reshapes Snow Patterns

The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its winter 2026-27 forecast on August 31, predicting a largely mild season punctuated by pockets of intense cold and above-normal snowfall in select regions. A strengthening Super El Niño is reshaping the jet stream and driving the forecast. NOAA estimates a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event this fall and winter, with a 69% chance it reaches historically strong levels.

Which regions will see the most snow

The Old Farmer’s Almanac identifies central New England, the Appalachians, and parts of the West as facing above-normal snowfall. Central Upstate New York, including Syracuse and Albany, will experience cold and snowy weather, while the Appalachian region from central New England through West Virginia’s eastern panhandle will see colder, snowier conditions. The Northeast offers the clearest area of agreement between the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac, with both expecting several rounds of heavy, wet snow inland, particularly in January and February.

Where winters will stay mild and dry

Much of the Midwest, Great Plains, and South will experience milder temperatures and wetter or drier conditions overall. Tennessee is expected to see a mild, dry winter with near-normal snowfall, while Michigan faces mild temperatures with below-average snowfall. New York City, Buffalo, Rochester, Boston, Cape Cod, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Delaware will see milder and drier conditions. Southern states like Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will experience warm and wet weather.

How El Niño is driving the forecast

A Super El Niño event is currently developing and forecast to peak as one of the strongest in decades. The World Meteorological Organization warns the El Niño is becoming a “supersized” event, projected to be the strongest on record and likely to persist through February 2027. NOAA data shows the Nino 3.4 region was around 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal in July, with weekly readings climbing into the 2.2 to 2.6 degree range. Some areas of the tropical Pacific have been running more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal below the ocean surface, providing a huge reservoir of warm water fueling the event’s strength.

What homeowners should prepare for

The Farmers’ Almanac is advising homeowners to prepare for a winter of “snow, sleet, and surprises.” Both almanacs expect a winter in which relatively mild conditions are interrupted by periods of more severe weather. Carol Connare, Editor-in-Chief of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, stated: “Winter won’t look the same everywhere this year. While much of the country is headed for a milder season, some areas will still see plenty of cold and snow.” The volatile conditions mean homeowners across all regions must contend with weather that could change rapidly.

Final Thoughts

The 2026-27 winter will be defined by sharp regional contrasts, with the Super El Niño driving milder conditions across much of the nation while the Northeast and Appalachians face above-normal snow. Homeowners should prepare for unpredictable swings between mild spells and sudden cold snaps.

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