Oil Reserves Depleting as Hormuz Blockade Persists, June 10

The Iran war that started in late February 2026 has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. BASF CEO Markus Kamieth warned on June 9 that global oil reserves are running low after months of supply disruption. If the blockade continues, a new oil price shock could hit in the second half of 2026, pushing crude higher and raising costs for drivers and manufacturers across Europe.

Why Hormuz Matters to Global Energy

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint between Iran and Oman. Nearly 30% of all seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway. With the blockade in place, the world loses roughly 20% of its oil supply and 3% of its natural gas. Refineries in the Middle East depend heavily on this route, making the impact even larger for finished products like fuel and chemicals.

Reserves Are Running Out

Kamieth stated that oil reserves buffering the supply loss are depleting. “We are slowly reaching the point where reserves are being consumed,” he said on June 9. If Hormuz stays closed, the second half of 2026 could see another price shock. Brent crude currently trades near $100 per barrel, up sharply from pre-war levels. For refined products like diesel and fuel, the impact could be even worse, with up to 40% of supply at risk if the blockade persists.

What This Means for Drivers and Industry

Higher oil prices translate directly to higher fuel costs at the pump. Germany introduced a fuel tax cut of 17 cents per liter on May 1 to ease the burden, but prices remain elevated compared to pre-war levels. For manufacturers, supply chain disruptions are severe. Plastic producers face shortages of key chemicals and rising shipping costs. Freight rates have soared due to higher insurance premiums and longer shipping routes.

A Rapid Recovery Could Flip Markets

If peace breaks out, the opposite risk emerges. Middle Eastern oil producers have kept production infrastructure ready during the blockade. Industry sources report that 50% to 75% of production capacity could restart within days or weeks. This could flood markets with oil, causing a sharp price drop. Fuel prices depend heavily on crude oil movements, so a sudden supply surge would lower pump prices quickly.

Final Thoughts

Oil markets face a two-way risk: continued blockade could push crude above $100/barrel in H2 2026, while a sudden peace deal could trigger a price collapse. Investors should watch Hormuz developments closely, as the outcome will shape energy costs and inflation across Europe for months.

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