Oil Prices Mixed as OPEC+ Output Hike Offsets Hormuz Risks; WTI Holds at $68.72 While Brent Slips to $71.97

Oil prices are trading mixed today, with WTI holding at $68.72 and Brent slipping to $71.97 per barrel. An OPEC+ decision to raise output is offsetting lingering risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Both benchmarks remain near their lowest levels since late February this year.

OPEC+ Adds to Supply Concerns

OPEC+ approved another output increase for next month, adding to pressure on oil prices. Seven members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise collective production by 188,000 barrels per day. The move signals growing confidence that Middle East supply conditions keep stabilizing.

Why the Increase Matters Now

This marks the latest in a string of monthly hikes since the group began unwinding earlier production cuts. Traders read the decision as confirmation that OPEC+ sees limited near-term risk of a supply shock. That confidence is now weighing directly on oil prices.

OPEC+ has agreed a further increase in output targets from August, the group said in a statement on Sunday, adding to global supply at a time when oil prices are falling due to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. https://t.co/F7CbAOHtMn

— BusinessWorld (@bworldph) July 6, 2026

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Is Normalizing

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of stabilizing on Sunday. That follows a day in which several vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the route. The chokepoint carries a large share of global crude and gas shipments daily.

• UAE exports: restored to more than 3.9 million barrels per day.
• Saudi exports to Asia: ramped up alongside the UAE increase.
• Combined Hormuz flows: now above 10 million barrels per day.

Saudi and UAE Flows Near Pre-War Levels

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have rebounded to roughly 90% of pre-war levels. The UAE, which exited OPEC during the conflict, has restored its own exports through a mix of tanker routing and a pipeline that bypasses the strait entirely. Both signal a steadier regional supply picture.

U.S.-Iran Talks Still Shape Sentiment

Diplomatic progress remains a key swing factor for oil prices this week. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with U.S. and Iranian officials in Doha recently. Officials have described the negotiations as progressing, though no permanent deal has been finalized yet.

• WTI last closed below $70 on February 27, before the Iran conflict began.
• Brent has returned close to pre-conflict levels seen in late February.
• OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, has separately sought a higher quota.

What Comes Next for Oil Prices

Traders this week are watching several fresh data points. The API’s weekly crude inventory report, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and the IEA’s monthly report all land in coming days. Any renewed disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse this week’s calmer tone.

Final Thoughts

Oil prices today reflect a market balancing fresh supply against a fragile geopolitical backdrop. OPEC+’s 188,000 barrel-per-day increase and recovering Hormuz traffic point toward looser conditions ahead. Still, unresolved U.S.-Iran talks mean sentiment around WTI and Brent could shift quickly if diplomatic progress stalls.

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