Key Points
Brent crude fell 1.52% to $96.32 USD on ceasefire hopes.
Energy executives warn crude could spike to $150-$160 USD this summer.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit decade-low of 357.1 million barrels.
Fuel consumption dropped 12% in May as prices remain 15% above pre-conflict levels.
Oil prices retreated on June 04 after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, easing fears of wider Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell 1.52% to $96.32 USD while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.23% to $94.84 USD. However, energy executives warn crude could spike to $150 USD or higher this summer as strategic reserves deplete and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Why Oil Fell on Ceasefire News
Oil prices declined Thursday after Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire deal. Brent crude for August delivery lost 1.52% to $96.32 USD. West Texas Intermediate for July fell 1.23% to $94.84 USD. Analysts say the truce raises hopes for a broader Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route.
Energy Chiefs Warn of Summer Spike
Despite the ceasefire, oil executives predict prices will soar. ExxonMobil Vice President Neil Chapman said strategic oil reserves have hit record lows and crude could reach $150 to $160 USD in coming weeks. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth echoed concerns, stating reserve levels worldwide are falling fast and June and July will be critical months. The 32 members of the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves in March but supplies continue to tighten.
Reserves at Decade-Low Levels
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 357.1 million barrels on May 29, down more than 50 million barrels since February 2026. This marks the lowest level since December 2023. Global demand remains strong while production faces disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure and geopolitical tensions. Energy officials warn that once reserves hit critical thresholds, prices will accelerate sharply.
What This Means for Drivers
Fuel consumption in France fell 12% in May and 11% in April as drivers cut usage due to high prices. However, gasoline prices remain 15% above pre-conflict levels in March 2026, and diesel is up 19%. The price pressure is hitting household budgets and government tax revenues, which have fallen 40 million euros compared to the same period in 2025.
Final Thoughts
Oil prices face competing forces: ceasefire hopes push crude lower, but depleted reserves and supply disruptions could trigger a summer spike to $150 USD or higher. Investors should watch reserve levels and Iran negotiations closely.
FAQs
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, raising hopes for a broader Iran deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Energy executives warn Brent crude could reach $150–$160 USD in June and July as strategic reserves deplete rapidly.
Brent crude for August delivery was $96.32 USD on June 04, down 1.52% from the previous day.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
About Author
Danny Kontos
Co FounderDanny Kontos has been a stock investor since 2007 and co-founded Meyka in 2023. He keeps a small, focused portfolio and only moves when the numbers are hard to argue with. He has waited years on a single position before. Before Meyka, he ran a web hosting company and a mortgage lending platform, so he knows what a well-run business actually looks like under the hood. This article did not come from a news cycle. It came from someone who has been watching this space for a long time.
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