Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Recover to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels, Goldman Sachs Says

Goldman Sachs said Thursday that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. Total Gulf exports of crude and oil products have climbed to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs said the recovery is limiting the Iran war’s overall impact on global crude prices.

Goldman Sachs Breaks Down the Numbers

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) analysts, including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, detailed the recovery in a client note this week. Current flows sit 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. That figure still marks a sharp rebound from March’s trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels daily.

• Current Gulf exports: 15 million to 16 million barrels per day
• Gap to pre-war levels: still 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below normal
• March trough: 5 million to 6 million barrels per day, the conflict’s lowest point

Goldman Sachs said Strait of Hormuz transits likely track close to the 8 million to 10 million barrel range US officials previously estimated.

Why Flows Are Recovering Despite the Conflict

Goldman Sachs attributed part of the rebound to a rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers avoiding satellite detection. Ship-to-ship transfers have also increased, letting producers and shippers adapt around ongoing Mideast disruptions. The bank said higher dark flows could moderate crude-price upside even if regional tensions persist longer.

Tanker Activity Tells a Mixed Story

Windward reported six tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with three operating in dark mode. Four tankers entered the chokepoint while two exited during that same session. This pattern suggests continued caution even as overall volume climbs from its earlier lows.

The Strait’s Broader Importance to Global Supply

The Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of the world’s daily seaborne oil and LNG supply before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February 2026. That scale makes even partial disruptions significant for global energy markets. Goldman Sachs’ latest figures point to a market still meaningfully undersupplied relative to pre-war norms.

• Pre-war share: roughly one-fifth of global daily seaborne oil and LNG supply
• ING’s commodity analysts echoed Goldman Sachs, citing more producers shuttling crude via alternative routes
• Alternative routes: Red Sea pipelines and Fujairah Port now carry an estimated 7.5 million barrels daily

Goldman Sachs’ Longer-Term Forecast

Goldman Sachs had earlier warned in June that Hormuz traffic may never fully return to pre-war levels. The bank projected flows could plateau around 70% of pre-conflict capacity, even after hostilities fully end. Regional producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq, have built out lasting alternative export infrastructure during the conflict.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pete Hegseth just suggested Trump controls the Strait of Hormuz:

"Iran knows we control the Strait of Hormuz and that oil is flowing through.

They made a big bet on controlling it, and they can’t."

Oil is flowing through, but only at 15% of pre-war levels.

Writer: Mhedi…

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 27, 2026

Market Impact on Energy Companies

Reduced reliance on Hormuz has pushed oil majors to diversify shipping routes across the region. Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil have all adjusted portfolio strategies amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs’ updated flow estimates give these companies clearer visibility into near-term crude availability heading into the fourth quarter.

Final Read

Goldman Sachs’ latest estimates show meaningful recovery in Gulf oil flows without signaling a full return to pre-war normalcy. Dark shipping and alternative routes have become permanent fixtures of regional oil logistics. Whether Hormuz traffic climbs further will depend heavily on how the broader conflict evolves through year-end.

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is for research and informational purposes only. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be treated as investment or trading advice.