Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) Q2 Earnings Preview: Revenue Expected to Rise 13.5% to $12.57 Billion

Netflix reports second-quarter 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 16, after market close. Wall Street expects revenue of $12.57 billion, up 13.5% year-over-year, alongside earnings per share of $0.79. That EPS figure marks a 9.7% rise from the $0.66 reported in the same quarter last year. NFLX stock closed at $73.86 on July 14, down sharply from its 52-week high of $127.75.

Options traders are pricing in an 8.03% post-earnings move, above the stock’s four-quarter average of 5.99%. Here’s a full breakdown of what to expect from Netflix’s upcoming report.

Netflix Q2 Earnings: Key Numbers To Watch

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) guided for a 32.6% operating margin in the second quarter, ahead of its 31.5% full-year target. Content amortization growth is expected to peak this quarter before decelerating in the back half of 2026.

• Consensus revenue estimate: $12.57 billion, up 13.5% year-over-year.
• Consensus EPS estimate: $0.79, up from $0.66 in Q2 2025.
• Guided operating margin: 32.6% for the quarter.
• Full-year revenue guidance: $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, unchanged.

Netflix delivered a negative earnings surprise of 7.89% last quarter, missing its own EPS guidance. The company has missed Zacks Consensus Estimates twice and beaten it twice over the trailing four quarters.

Netflix Stock Performance Heading Into Earnings

NFLX stock has struggled through 2026, falling roughly 41% from its 52-week high. Shares hit a fresh 52-week low in June before stabilizing ahead of Thursday’s report.

• 52-week range: $70.86 to $127.75.
• July 14 close: $73.86, up 0.67% for the session.
• Market capitalization: approximately $308 billion.
• Year-to-date performance: down between 17% and 21%, depending on the measure.

Several analysts trimmed price targets ahead of the print. Morgan Stanley cut its target to $90 from $115, KeyBanc lowered its target to $92 from $115, and Bernstein reduced its target to $100 from $110.

Advertising Growth Remains The Key Netflix Story

Netflix’s ad-supported tier is central to this quarter’s narrative. Management has guided toward roughly doubling 2026 ad revenue to about $3 billion, and investors want confirmation of that trajectory.

• Ad-supported tier: surpassed 250 million global monthly active viewers as of May 2026.
• That figure is up from 190 million just months earlier.
• Over half of new sign-ups now choose an ad-supported plan.
• Netflix plans to expand its ad tier into 15 more markets starting in 2027.

Netflix also introduced new monetization tools this year, including an Audience Insights API and a Reach Curve API for advertisers. Both aim to strengthen programmatic buying access across live and pause-ad formats.

Membership Trends And Regional Revenue Estimates

Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber counts after Q1 2026, shifting investor focus toward regional revenue breakdowns instead. Paid memberships had already crossed 325 million as of the first quarter.

• US and Canada revenue estimate: $5.50 billion, up 11.6% year-over-year.
• EMEA revenue estimate: rise 15.1% year over year to $1.50 billion. .
• Latin America revenue estimate: $1.50 billion, up 15.1% year-over-year.
• Asia-Pacific revenue estimate: $1.51 billion, up 16.4% year-over-year.

Household penetration remains below 45% of Netflix’s addressable base, according to prior guidance. That leaves meaningful room for continued membership growth even without disclosed subscriber counts.

Netflix (NASDAQ: $NFLX ): Advertising Is Quietly Becoming the Company’s Next Growth Engine

Netflix is heading into its Q2 earnings this week with investors focusing on more than just subscriber numbers. The bigger story is how quickly its advertising business is growing—and it… https://t.co/YgTrtjtO1f

— GUL (@gulVasikova) July 13, 2026

Content Slate And Live Events Add Pressure

Netflix leaned heavily into live programming this quarter, including an exclusive FIFA World Cup video game launched June 11. That timing coincided with the tournament’s kickoff to sustain engagement.

• Netflix launched “FIFA World Cup: Launch Edition” on June 11, 2026.
• The platform added a daily football talk show during the tournament.
• Netflix secured exclusive streaming rights to the MLB Home Run Derby.
• Content amortization growth is guided to peak this quarter before slowing.

Analyst Laurent Yoon of Bernstein said the World Cup likely worsened seasonally soft engagement trends this quarter. That dynamic adds pressure on Netflix to show advertising can offset any subscriber growth softness.

Bottom Line

Netflix heads into its July 16 report with revenue expected to climb 13.5% to $12.57 billion and EPS near $0.79. Advertising momentum, now above 250 million monthly active viewers, remains the strongest counterweight to concerns about softer subscriber engagement this quarter.

With NFLX stock down roughly 41% from its 52-week high and several analysts trimming price targets, Thursday’s report carries outsized weight. Investors should watch third-quarter guidance and full-year margin commentary closely for direction into the second half of 2026.

Disclaimer:

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