Microsoft Surges 15% After Record $450B Single-Day Gain on July 31

Microsoft stock rallied 15% on July 30, adding nearly $450 billion to its market value in a single day, the largest one-day gain in corporate history. The surge followed fourth-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations, with revenue reaching $90 billion and Azure cloud services growing 43% year-over-year. The results offered fresh evidence that Microsoft’s $190 billion data-center buildout is translating into revenue growth.

Why Microsoft’s stock jumped 15% in one day

Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $90 billion, beating the Zacks consensus estimate by 2.93%. Earnings per share hit $4.74 on a non-GAAP basis, up 23% year-over-year and beating estimates by 12.59%. Azure cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, with growth of 43% year-over-year, well ahead of the 40.92% analyst forecast. The company also disclosed that its AI assistant Copilot now has over 30 million paid seats, up from 20 million in April.

Azure growth signals AI investments are paying off

Microsoft Cloud revenues totaled $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year, driven largely by commitments from customers beyond AI model developers. Microsoft’s strong revenue performance combined with accelerating Copilot adoption signals that its $190 billion data-center buildout is beginning to deliver returns, according to analysts tracking the results.

Capital spending plans unchanged despite market concerns

Microsoft reiterated its 2026 capital expenditure forecast of $175 billion for the calendar year and $50 billion for fiscal Q1 2027. The company expects Azure to grow 45% on a constant-currency basis in its first quarter, above the 40.92% analyst estimate. Microsoft’s stock popped even as the company reiterated its 2026 capital expenditure forecast and signaled a potential spending expansion in its 2027 fiscal year at a time when the market is concerned about AI infrastructure costs.

Analyst targets rise as nine brokerages raise price forecasts

At least nine brokerages raised their price targets following the earnings announcement. The mean analyst price target is now $560.90. Meyka’s stock grade is A with a buy recommendation, and the 12-month price forecast is $504.19, suggesting upside from current levels. The RSI technical indicator stands at 72.71, signaling overbought conditions, while the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 27.86.

Final Thoughts

Microsoft’s 15% rally and record market cap gain reflect investor confidence that AI spending is generating returns. With analyst targets averaging $560.90 and Meyka grading the stock A, the data supports continued strength, though the overbought RSI of 72.71 suggests caution on near-term pullbacks.

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