Markey Holds 28-Point Lead Over Moulton in Massachusetts Senate Primary

Massachusetts voters began early in-person voting on Saturday for the September 1 Democratic Senate primary, with 80-year-old incumbent Ed Markey holding a decisive lead over Representative Seth Moulton. A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released August 17 showed Markey ahead 60% to 32%, a 28-point margin that prediction markets now price at 93% odds of Markey winning the nomination. Moulton’s campaign has centered almost entirely on arguing that Markey, who has served in Congress since 1976, is too old to serve another six-year term.

Polls show Markey’s commanding lead despite age argument

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released August 18 found Markey leading 52% to 38%. The UMass Amherst/WCVB poll published August 17 showed an even wider gap at 60% to 32%. Pollsters have overestimated far-left support in recent races, but Markey’s lead has widened as the primary approaches. Prediction markets across four platforms now price Markey’s victory probability at 93% to 94%, with Moulton at just 5% to 6%.

Moulton’s campaign built on generational change message

Moulton, a 47-year-old Marine Corps veteran and six-term congressman, launched his bid in October 2025 with a campaign video framing the race in generational terms. He argued that Markey, at 80, should not run for another six-year term and that someone who has been in Congress for half a century cannot meet the moment. The challenge echoes Democratic concerns about age that upended former President Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election bid.

Young voters back Markey despite age focus

Markey is winning among voters aged 18 to 35 by 58% to 35%, according to polling data. Young voters are choosing Markey’s progressive record over Moulton’s generational argument. Markey co-wrote the Green New Deal with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, supports Medicare for All, and voted against the Iraq War that Moulton fought in and defended.

Early voting underway with September 1 primary date set

Early in-person voting began Saturday, August 22, the same day as the voter registration deadline. This created a 24-hour window for same-day registration and voting. The primary election is set for September 1, with mail-in ballots due by 8 p.m. that day. Secretary of State William Galvin recommended early voting over mail ballots to avoid delivery delays.

Final Thoughts

Markey’s commanding polling lead and 93% prediction-market odds suggest the primary is largely decided, though pollsters have underestimated moderate voters in recent Democratic races. The September 1 vote will test whether those patterns hold in Massachusetts.

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