Malaysia braces for extreme heat as Super El Niño peaks by year-end

Malaysia is bracing for extreme weather as a strengthening El Niño climate pattern is forecast to peak by late 2026 and persist into early 2027. Temperatures could exceed 40°C in certain regions, with drier conditions threatening water supplies, agricultural output, and food security. The phenomenon is expected to be stronger than the severe 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 episodes, according to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia climatologist Fredolin Tangang.

Temperatures set to climb above 40°C

Parts of Malaysia should prepare for temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C in the coming months as El Niño intensifies, bringing higher heat and drier conditions. Although Malaysia has not yet experienced constant temperatures above 37°C or prolonged heatwaves, the risk will likely increase as El Niño strengthens. Universiti Malaya meteorologist Azizan Abu Samah said stronger El Niño conditions could suppress cloud formation, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface and push temperatures higher.

Haze and forest fire risks escalate across the region

Dry conditions fuelled by El Niño have already worsened fires in Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan, raising the risk of transboundary haze over Singapore and Malaysia. The National Environment Agency said on August 9 that dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week. Northern Sarawak and Sabah could face drier conditions, raising the risk of forest fires and haze, while Kelantan has already received 2,197 fire-related emergency calls from January through early August, compared with 373 calls throughout 2025.

Water shortages and agricultural impact loom

Prolonged heat and drier conditions could affect water resources, agricultural production, food security, and public health. The Department of Irrigation and Drainage has deployed 606 portable emergency pumps nationwide and is monitoring dam levels and forecasting drought risks. During the 1997-1998 El Niño episode, falling water levels at the Klang Gates and Langat dams led to almost six months of water rationing affecting around 3.2 million people in the Klang Valley.

Global heat records already being set

The intensifying El Niño has already driven record-breaking temperatures worldwide. According to Copernicus climate data, some 33 countries recorded their hottest July since records began. Nearly 400 million of roughly 900 million people in affected regions live in Africa, primarily in the Sahel, where countries such as Chad and Sudan recorded July temperatures more than 2°C above the 1981-2010 average. Episodes of extreme heat have become almost 10 times more likely since 2015, scientists from the World Weather Attribution network warned, attributing the rise to human-driven climate change.

Final Thoughts

Malaysia faces a critical test of its water and disaster management systems as El Niño peaks through early 2027. With temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C and drought risks rising, businesses and households should prepare for higher insurance costs, agricultural disruptions, and possible water rationing similar to 1998.

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