Ken Paxton’s Leaked Audio: Trump Convention Hurt GOP Poll Numbers

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton told conservative donors that President Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas dropped poll numbers for Republican candidates, according to leaked audio obtained by The New York Times on October 1. Paxton said “Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” Trump brushed off the recording Wednesday, saying he had not heard it and calling the two-day convention “amazing.”

What Paxton said in the private recording

In audio from a private fundraiser with donors and lobbyists in Washington, D.C., Paxton was asked whether someone was “a little bit of a drag.” The New York Times confirmed the recording’s authenticity with three other people present. Paxton replied: “When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” He added: “I wish there was something we could do to turn that around, but there’s obviously nothing.”

Trump’s response and the convention context

When reporters asked Trump about the audio on Wednesday, he said simply “Hadn’t heard that” and shifted to praising the Dallas convention as “amazing,” citing its viewership. At the September convention, Trump had mocked Paxton’s dress and speaking style while endorsing him, saying “We have to make sure he wins.” Trump also offered a $5,000 “Trump dividend” to all adult Americans if Republicans win the midterms. Vice President JD Vance said Paxton’s off-the-record comments did not worry him and pledged support, saying “We’re going to help Ken.”

Paxton’s campaign pushes back and polling reality

Paxton’s senior advisor Nick Maddux dismissed the recording as “manipulated nonsense” and released an internal survey showing Paxton leading by three points. However, most independent polls since mid-summer show Paxton either tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico. The RealClearPolitics polling average suggests Talarico would win if the election were held Monday. Maddux claimed Paxton’s numbers had improved since early September, contradicting Paxton’s own private assessment.

The political stakes for Republicans

Trump is embarking on a 32-day campaign tour to save Republican races ahead of the midterms, with Texas on his must-stop list. The leaked audio reveals internal Republican doubts about whether Trump’s presence helps or hurts down-ballot candidates in a state where his own polling numbers are underwater. The first midterm political convention in modern times was designed to shore up GOP candidates before November’s election.

Final Thoughts

The leaked audio exposes a rift between Trump’s public confidence in the convention and private Republican concerns about its impact. Paxton’s trailing polls and his own doubts suggest Trump’s endorsement may not translate to victory in Texas.

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