Ken Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas Senate GOP Primary, May 27

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff, capturing 63.8% of 1.38 million votes cast. President Trump’s endorsement one week before the election proved decisive. Paxton is the first primary challenger to defeat an incumbent U.S. senator from Texas since 1970. He will face Democrat James Talarico in November, a race that could determine Senate control.

Trump’s Endorsement Shifts the Race

Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19, one week before the runoff and after early voting had begun. An April poll showed such an endorsement would likely give Paxton an insurmountable lead. Paxton’s campaign and allied super PACs aired ads promoting the endorsement within 24 hours. Cornyn and his allies had spent months lobbying Trump to back him instead, arguing Paxton would be a weaker general election candidate. Trump ultimately sided with Paxton, calling him a true MAGA warrior.

How Paxton Built His Challenge

Paxton launched his insurgent candidacy in April 2025 on Fox News host Laura Ingraham’s show. In the March primary, Cornyn led with 42% of votes to Paxton’s 41%, but neither reached 50%, triggering a runoff. Pro-Cornyn groups outspent Paxton’s campaign and super PACs 16.5 million dollars to 5.9 million dollars since March 3. Paxton courted Republican base voters throughout his career, while Cornyn held advantages of incumbency and a larger war chest.

What Comes Next for Republicans

Paxton’s victory is the latest in Trump’s successful efforts to oust sitting Republicans he views as insufficiently loyal. This month, Trump-backed challengers defeated Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, and several Indiana state senators. The race has already cost over 108 million dollars, making it the second most expensive race in the country this year. Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after Paxton’s win, signaling increased Democratic chances.

The General Election Matchup

Paxton will face Democrat James Talarico, an Austin state representative and former teacher who won his primary. Talarico immediately attacked Paxton as the most corrupt politician in America, citing his 2023 impeachment acquittal on bribery and corruption charges. A University of Texas poll from April found Talarico ahead of both Republican candidates by roughly the same margin. Nearly 1 in 5 voters polled remained undecided, leaving substantial room for movement before November.

Final Thoughts

Paxton’s 28-point victory over Cornyn demonstrates Trump’s grip on Republican primary voters and the cost of perceived disloyalty. The general election race is now competitive, with Cook Political Report downgrading it from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

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