Ken Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas GOP Primary, May 27

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn on May 27 in a Republican runoff primary, winning 64% of the vote to Cornyn’s 36%. President Trump’s endorsement of Paxton last week proved decisive in what became the most expensive Senate primary campaign in US history. The outcome forces Cornyn into retirement and sets up a closely watched November general election between Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico that could determine Senate control.

Trump’s Endorsement Sealed Cornyn’s Defeat

Trump endorsed Paxton last week as a “true MAGA warrior,” energizing his base during early voting. Cornyn, a 23-year congressional veteran and former Senate Republican leader, spent nearly $100 million trying to win back Trump’s favor. He voted against Trump’s impeachments, highlighted his pro-Trump voting record, and backed parts of Trump’s immigration agenda. Trump dismissed these efforts, calling Cornyn “very disloyal” and accusing him of questioning Trump’s political future in 2023.

Democrats See a Path to Flip Texas

The Cook Political Report moved the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after Paxton’s victory. Analysts note that Democrats view Paxton as the weaker candidate compared to Cornyn. A University of Texas poll from mid-April found that Talarico performed roughly equally against each Republican. Nearly 1 in 5 voters polled remained undecided, leaving significant room for movement. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.

Paxton’s Legal Baggage and Trump’s Loyalty Test

Paxton, 63, faces significant legal and personal challenges. He was impeached by the Texas House on abuse of office charges and acquitted by the state Senate. His senior staffers reported him to the FBI for allegedly using his position to help a donor; the FBI later dropped the investigation. His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year citing adultery. Despite this record, Paxton won with Trump’s backing, demonstrating the president’s control over Republican primary voters.

A Rare Moment of Republican Vulnerability

Cornyn’s loss marks the first time a Republican senator from Texas lost his party’s nomination for re-election. It also continues a pattern of Trump-backed challengers ousting Republican incumbents. Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy failed to reach his party’s runoff just 10 days earlier. The Texas race is already the second most expensive in the country this year, after the California governor election, with over $108 million spent so far.

Final Thoughts

Paxton’s primary victory reshapes the November race and gives Democrats realistic odds of flipping a Texas Senate seat for the first time in 38 years. However, Paxton still faces significant headwinds in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

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