Jet Fuel Prices Surge on Iran War, But Europe Avoids Shortage

The Iran war that began February 28 has cut jet fuel exports from the Middle East by around 80 percent and driven prices sharply higher. Airlines face fuel bills jumping by over $2 billion each this year. Yet EU officials and major carriers now say Europe will avoid fuel shortages this summer by sourcing supplies from the U.S., Nigeria, and Cold War-era pipelines.

How the War Disrupted Fuel Supply

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stopped most jet fuel exports from the Middle East. Jet fuel exports from the Gulf fell by around 80 percent in March as part of wider disruption that wiped more than 10 million barrels per day from global oil supply. The conflict has also cut Europe’s imports of jet fuel, while local refinery output has been falling for nearly two decades due to dozens of refineries closing or converting to biofuel production.

Airlines Brace for Higher Costs

Lufthansa Group posted an operating loss of 612 million euros in the first quarter, which it attributes to rising kerosene prices. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM each expect their fuel bills to jump by over $2 billion this year. Brussels Airlines said the crisis will prevent it from reaching its target of an 8 percent profit margin in 2026. Airlines are cutting uneconomic routes and forcing flight detours to manage costs.

Why Shortages Have Not Materialized

EU Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told Reuters on June 5 that “there is currently no jet fuel shortage in Europe” and officials see no signs of shortages in the coming months. Refiners are maximizing jet fuel output and buyers are diversifying imports from the U.S. and Nigeria to offset Middle East losses. Brussels Airlines has hedged 80 percent of its kerosene, locking in prices and shielding itself from spikes. Access to the NATO Central European Pipeline System, a 5,000km network built during the Cold War, is also helping supply European airports and refineries.

What This Means for Summer Travel

Air Canada and Lufthansa have both assured customers it is safe to book summer holiday trips to Europe. Air Canada said it has a “diversified and sophisticated fuel supply in place” and does not anticipate significant impact through the summer. Analysts warn that while fuel prices remain elevated, the structural reshaping of global supply chains means airlines and refiners will continue adapting to avoid disruption.

Final Thoughts

Airlines face billions in extra fuel costs this year, but Europe’s supply chain resilience and diversification have prevented the shortages many feared in April. The real risk lies in sustained high prices, not supply cuts.

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