Japan to Buy Back 590,000 Tons of Government Rice as Private Stocks Surge

Japan’s agriculture ministry will repurchase government rice released in 2025 to stabilize falling prices, the ministry announced July 28. The buyback timing and volume will be decided in late August after assessing the 2026 harvest outlook. Private rice inventories have ballooned to 2.43 million tons as of June, the largest on record since 2004, well above the 180-200 million ton level considered healthy. The government released 590,000 tons in 2025 to combat price spikes, reducing strategic reserves from 100 million tons to 30 million tons.

Why rice reserves fell so sharply

The government released 590,000 tons of rice in 2025 through auction and direct contracts to counter rising prices. This cut strategic reserves to 30 million tons from the 100 million ton level deemed appropriate for emergencies like crop failures or natural disasters. The agriculture ministry stated the buyback plan on July 28 at a food policy advisory council meeting.

Private stocks at record levels despite falling prices

Private rice inventories hit 2.43 million tons in June 2026, exceeding the 180-200 million ton optimal range by a wide margin. This is the highest level since the ministry began tracking data in 2004. By June 2027, inventories are expected to swell further to 263-281 million tons. Higher 2025 production and reduced demand from elevated prices drove the buildup, according to the ministry’s analysis.

When the government will decide on buyback details

Agriculture Minister Suzuki said July 28 the ministry will determine buyback volume and timing in late August after harvest conditions become clear. The decision hinges on 2026 production forecasts and overall supply-demand conditions. Projected 2026 rice output is 732 million tons, exceeding the maximum 711 million ton demand estimate, signaling continued oversupply pressure on prices.

What buyback means for farmers and prices

Government purchases could stabilize falling rice prices by absorbing excess private supply. However, the timing remains uncertain as the ministry balances competing pressures: supporting farmer incomes while avoiding further price volatility. Japan’s rice sector supplies staple food for millions and underpins rural livelihoods across the country.

Final Thoughts

Japan faces a rice glut that threatens farmer income and requires careful government intervention. The July 28 buyback announcement signals recognition of the crisis, but execution details in late August will determine whether prices stabilize or fall further.

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