Key Points
Gold futures fell 3.57% to $4,133.30 on June 10, lowest close since November 2025.
US-Iran clashes reignited inflation concerns and pushed rate hike odds to 67% for December.
Stronger dollar and higher interest rates weigh on non-yielding precious metals.
J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs maintain year-end targets near $5,400 to $6,000 per ounce.
Gold fell sharply on June 10 as fresh fighting between the US and Iran dimmed hopes for a ceasefire, reigniting inflation concerns and pushing traders to expect higher interest rates. US gold futures for August delivery shed 3.57% to settle at $4,133.30, the lowest close since November 24, 2025. Spot gold dropped 4.5% to $4,070.56. The metal now trades roughly 20% below levels before the conflict began in late February.
How US-Iran Tensions Triggered the Selloff
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards carried out missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain after the US struck Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. This marked one of the biggest exchanges of hostilities since the two countries agreed to a ceasefire in April. The clashes raised concerns that recent progress toward de-escalation could unravel, with ongoing Middle East tensions continuing to threaten regional stability and global energy supplies.
Why Higher Rates Hurt Gold More Than Geopolitics
Rising oil prices from the conflict stoked inflation fears, pushing traders to price in higher interest rates. CME futures now show a 67% chance of a US rate hike in December, with year-end rate expectations lifted to approximately 3.87%. Higher interest rates weigh on gold because the metal yields no income. A stronger US dollar, which rose alongside the payrolls data, added further pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like gold. Stronger-than-expected US payrolls in May showed 172,000 jobs added against a consensus forecast of 80,000 to 85,000, sharply lifting rate-hike expectations.
What Analysts Expect for the Rest of 2026
J.P. Morgan trimmed its 2026 full-year average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 per ounce, citing softer near-term investor demand. However, the bank maintained its base-case year-end target of around $6,000 per ounce, expecting demand to re-accelerate in the second half of 2026 as central bank buying and ETF inflows recover. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $5,400 per ounce year-end 2026 target. Central bank demand for gold remains strong as geopolitical tensions drive reserve diversification.
Technical Damage and What It Means
Gold’s decline below the 200-day simple moving average signals a bearish technical setup that may trigger additional selling pressure. Analysts warn that the CPI report due later in June will heavily influence Federal Reserve expectations for the second half of 2026. With Meyka rating GOLD a B+ and forecasting a 12-month target of $54.73, the data points to limited upside in the near term as rate hike odds remain elevated.
Final Thoughts
Gold fell 3.6% on June 10 as US-Iran clashes reignited inflation and rate hike concerns, outweighing safe-haven demand. With central banks still buying and year-end targets near $5,400 to $6,000 per ounce, the selloff may offer entry points for long-term investors.
FAQs
Rising oil prices from the conflict stoked inflation fears, pushing traders to expect higher interest rates. Higher rates reduce gold’s appeal versus income-yielding investments.
J.P. Morgan targets $6,000 per ounce by year-end 2026, while Goldman Sachs targets $5,400. Both expect demand recovery in the second half of 2026.
Gold has fallen approximately 20% from pre-conflict levels, now trading near $4,070 per ounce following the US-Iran tensions that began in late February 2026.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
About Author
Huzaifa Zahoor
Co FounderHuzaifa Zahoor is the engineer who built Meyka. He has spent years writing Python, training AI models, and building data pipelines specifically for financial markets. His technical articles have reached over 30,000 readers on Medium, so he knows how to make complex things easy to follow. If this article touches on how the tools work, he is the person who actually built them.
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