Gold Price Today: MCX Gold Slips to ₹1,43,371 While Brent Climbs 1.05% to $78.84; Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 68%

Gold price eased on 9 July 2026, with MCX Gold falling to ₹1,43,371 per 10 grams, while Brent crude rose 1.05% to $78.84 per barrel. At the same time, traders raised the probability of another US Federal Reserve rate hike to 68%, putting fresh pressure on precious metals. Gold is losing ground even as oil prices move higher, leaving investors focused on inflation, interest rates, and changing market sentiment.

Why Gold Price Fell Despite Safe-Haven Demand?

MCX Gold Extends Recent Weakness

MCX Gold traded near ₹1,43,371 per 10 grams on 9 July 2026, continuing its recent decline as investors locked in profits after the metal’s earlier rally. In international markets, spot gold traded around $4,100 an ounce. It recovered slightly from a one-week low but stayed under pressure through the session.

Geopolitical tensions continued to support demand for safe-haven assets, yet higher bond yields limited buying interest. Currency movements also remained in focus. A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which often reduces demand. Together, these factors kept gold prices moving within a volatile range during the day.

Higher Interest Rate Expectations Weigh on Gold

The outlook for US interest rates remains the biggest factor affecting gold prices. Markets now estimate a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again as inflation stays above its target.

Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments such as government bonds more attractive because they offer better returns. Gold does not generate interest, so investors often reduce their exposure when borrowing costs increase. Rising Treasury yields have added to that pressure. Traders are now waiting for upcoming US inflation and employment data, which could influence the Fed’s next policy decision and set the direction for gold prices.

Brent Crude Oil Climbs as Geopolitical Risks Return

Brent Oil Rises to $78.84

Brent crude climbed 1.05% to $78.84 per barrel after renewed geopolitical tensions raised concerns about global oil supplies. Recent military developments involving the United States and Iran increased worries about possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes.

Brent crude has surged to near $78/barrel, up +3.5% today, following geopolitical tension over Iran. The sharp rally reflects immediate market repricing of supply-risk premium in response to escalating tensions.$BTC #BTC #MACRO #ENERGY pic.twitter.com/AEX6GmnvE6

— Onchain Insights (@OnchainIns5699) July 8, 2026

Supply concerns pushed oil prices higher for a third consecutive session and renewed fears that inflation could remain elevated.

Why Oil Prices Matter for Gold?

Oil prices influence inflation across the global economy. As crude becomes more expensive, transportation, manufacturing, and production costs usually increase. That often leads central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Although gold is widely seen as a hedge against inflation, prolonged periods of high interest rates usually reduce its appeal. That is why stronger crude prices are currently putting more pressure on gold instead of providing additional support.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Become the Market’s Biggest Driver

Why are Investors Watching the Fed So Closely?

Expectations around Federal Reserve policy continue to shape trading across commodity markets. Investors believe the central bank will remain focused on controlling inflation before considering any interest rate cuts.

Rates are carrying two trades at once.

The market still has Fed hikes priced in, but options traders are increasingly hedging for a less hawkish path.

That tension matters more than the headline.

If the Fed delivers the hikes, duration stays under pressure and risk assets lose… pic.twitter.com/3RpvQKNRri

— Global Macro Signals (@GlobalMacroSigs) July 8, 2026

Upcoming US inflation data, labour market reports, and comments from Federal Reserve officials will likely influence market expectations over the next few weeks. Any surprise in those reports could quickly change investor positioning.

What a Hawkish Fed Means for Commodities?

A hawkish Federal Reserve generally supports a stronger US dollar and pushes Treasury yields higher. Both developments usually weigh on gold because the metal does not provide regular income.

Energy markets can follow a different path if supply risks remain elevated. Oil prices may continue to find support while geopolitical tensions persist. Investors will also monitor economic releases closely, as fresh data can trigger sharp moves across commodity markets.

Key Levels to Watch for Gold and Crude Oil

Gold Technical Outlook

Gold continues to trade under pressure, with immediate support near ₹1,43,000 on the MCX. A sustained move above recent resistance levels could improve short-term sentiment, but many traders remain cautious ahead of major US economic releases. Technical analysts expect price swings to remain elevated until there is greater clarity on interest rate expectations.

Brent Oil Outlook

Brent crude is approaching resistance in the $79 to $80 range. Continued geopolitical tensions or stronger global demand could lift prices further. On the other hand, easing tensions in the Middle East or weaker economic activity could limit additional gains. Inflation reports will remain one of the main drivers for both oil and gold in the coming sessions.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure as investors weigh safe-haven demand against the prospect of higher US interest rates. At the same time, rising Brent crude prices are keeping inflation concerns alive and supporting expectations that monetary policy could stay tighter for longer.

The next move in both markets will depend largely on upcoming US economic data, Federal Reserve guidance, and developments in the Middle East. Until then, traders are likely to remain cautious.

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.