EU Proposes Eight New Members by 2028; Germany Pumps Brakes on Expansion

The European Commission published a sweeping enlargement plan on Tuesday proposing to admit at least eight new countries to the EU, with Montenegro potentially joining by 2028 and Ukraine by the start of the next decade. The plan introduces a probationary membership model where new states would have fewer rights than current members for years. However, Germany, France, and other wealthy nations are demanding high barriers and safeguards, fearing voter backlash and institutional chaos.

What the Commission proposed

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos presented the report “Preparing for a Wider Union” on Tuesday, outlining how the bloc can absorb more members without paralyzing itself. The plan includes gradual integration of candidate countries into EU programs before full accession, new safeguards in accession treaties to ensure ongoing compliance, and changes to voting rules. Montenegro has completed 18 of 35 required negotiation chapters and could finish by year-end, positioning it as the frontrunner for 2028 entry.

The roadblock: Germany and wealthy states say no

Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium are blocking fast-track expansion, demanding high hurdles and broad safeguards. These governments fear their own parliaments or voters could reject enlargement in referendums. The EU has not admitted a new member since 2013, and the accession process requires unanimous approval from all 27 current states.

Why the timing matters now

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing influence in the Balkans have revived EU interest in expansion. The Western Balkans are strategically vital, and prolonged delays risk pushing frustrated candidate countries toward Moscow or Beijing. Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised in June that the EU wants these countries, but the reality of implementation remains contested. EU leaders will debate the proposals at a summit in nine days in Brussels.

New members would face strict conditions

Under the Commission plan, new member states will have significantly fewer rights than the current 27 for many years and face harsh sanctions for rule violations. Ukraine and other candidates must meet the Copenhagen Criteria: stable democratic institutions, functioning courts, market economies, and reliable implementation of EU law. Transition periods of up to eight years may be granted for the most burdensome regulations, particularly for Ukrainian businesses struggling with war-related poverty and infrastructure gaps.

Final Thoughts

The EU’s enlargement ambitions are real but politically fragile. Germany and France hold veto power, and no new member has joined in 13 years. Investors should watch the October 15 Brussels summit for signs of compromise or deadlock.

FAQs

Disclaimer:

The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes.  Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.