Esper: Iran Rushing Negotiations Before Midterms as U.S. Strikes Mount

Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Wednesday that Iran will attempt to extract maximum concessions in peace negotiations before the November midterm elections, after which he predicted President Trump will intensify military pressure on Tehran. Esper’s warning follows a sharp escalation: the U.S. struck approximately 90 targets inside Iran on Wednesday evening, and earlier Tuesday conducted hours-long strikes in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The June ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran now appears on life support.

Why Iran is rushing to negotiate now

Esper told NewsNation on Wednesday that Iran understands Trump’s political constraints before the midterms will ease after November 4. “His hand will become freer after the election for sure, and the Iranians know that,” Esper said. “So this is the Iranians’ time of maximum negotiation—get what they can now, because after Nov. 4, when [Trump] doesn’t have to worry about the politics and economics, he can really unleash the United States military once again after Iran.” Esper predicted that without electoral concerns, Trump will have fewer reasons to restrain military action against Tehran.

The ceasefire is crumbling fast

A memorandum of understanding signed in June included a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. However, the agreement did not resolve details about Iran’s nuclear material, which was to be addressed in later talks. This week’s strikes have thrown the deal into doubt. Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, prompting the U.S. Tuesday strikes. Iran then fired drones and missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, which host U.S. military assets and troops.

Trump declares the agreement over

President Trump, visibly angered by Iranian strikes, said on Wednesday at the NATO summit that the agreement was “over.” “I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum,” Trump said, calling negotiations a waste of time. However, Esper disagreed with the finality of Trump’s statement. Esper said he did not think the agreement is dead because both sides have no interest in returning to all-out war. Trump does not want oil prices to rise, a consequence of full-scale conflict.

What happens next

Esper’s analysis suggests a holding pattern until after the midterms. Both sides face pressure: Iran wants to lock in gains before Trump’s hands are untied, while Trump balances military readiness against economic concerns. The Aspen Security Forum on July 14 will feature Esper alongside former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other national security figures, likely to discuss the escalating tensions further.

Final Thoughts

Esper’s warning reveals the political calendar driving U.S.-Iran dynamics: Iran is negotiating urgently now, knowing Trump will have more freedom to act after November. With the ceasefire fraying and both sides trading major strikes, the next four months will test whether diplomacy survives or military escalation becomes inevitable.

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