El Niño to Peak in December at Record Strength, WMO Warns

The World Meteorological Organization warned Thursday that El Niño will intensify sharply before peaking in December 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest events recorded since 1950. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are forecast to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal by December, the highest level since observations began. WMO forecasts a near-100% likelihood the event persists through February 2027, with implications for Australian food prices and global weather patterns.

Record ocean heat drives strongest El Niño in decades

The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, issued October 6, shows El Niño strengthening rapidly based on consensus data from 13 national and international meteorological centres. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the forecast reflects real-time ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will reach approximately 3.7°C above normal, peaking around December. This exceeds the previous record of 2.6°C set in November 2015 to January 2016.

What El Niño means for Australian shoppers

El Niño typically brings hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall to Australia, threatening tropical crops including cocoa, coffee and vanilla. Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said price pressures have already begun at the early stages, with some global regions experiencing reduced supplies. Cocoa is particularly vulnerable because it is fragile and sensitive to both excess moisture, which triggers crop disease, and drought conditions. Australian families could face higher chocolate and coffee prices heading into the Christmas season.

Global rainfall patterns shift, triggering drought and flood risks

The WMO forecast shows large shifts in rainfall patterns consistent with a strong El Niño. Above-normal rainfall is expected across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia and coastal East Asia. A broad dry signal is forecast over the western Pacific and equatorial Atlantic, stretching across the South Pacific to southern South America, the Indian subcontinent and southern Central America. This increases the risk of drought and floods in different regions worldwide.

Why this El Niño is different from past events

Celeste Saulo explained that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet, but rather releases heat the ocean has already stored beneath the surface. The underlying ocean is the warmest ever measured, meaning more heat is available to release. This is why strong El Niño events often coincide with record global temperatures, as occurred in 2024. The combination of record ocean heat and a strengthening El Niño creates conditions for significant global weather disruptions through early 2027.

Final Thoughts

With El Niño forecast to peak at record strength in December and persist through February 2027, Australian investors and households should prepare for elevated food inflation on cocoa and coffee, alongside broader weather-driven supply chain disruptions. The near-certainty forecast rests on consensus data from 13 meteorological centres, not a single model.

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